A context of low fertility
One of the most striking features of Vietnam's demographic evolution in recent decades has been the decline in fertility. According to the 1989 census, each woman of childbearing age (15-49) had an average of 3.8 children, but this rate had fallen to 2.3 children by the 1999 census, 2.03 children by the 2009 census and 1.97 children by the 2019 census, i.e. below the rate required for generational renewal (2.1 children per woman). However, there are major disparities between provinces and ethnic groups. While the average fertility rate in Ho Chi Minh City is 1.45 children per woman (2015), it remains high in the mountainous regions of the north/northwest and central highlands (3.1 in Ha Giang, 2.9 in Gia Lai). Some ethnic groups also remain at very high levels, notably the Thai (2.3 children per woman) and the Hmong (4.9 children per woman). Low fertility has been encouraged by various family planning policies implemented over the past 50 years, which have promoted smaller family sizes with one or two children per couple. Demographic control in Vietnam, however, has not been as coercive as China's one-child policy. The norm of a small family has now taken root among Vietnamese couples, in an economic context where raising children is becoming increasingly expensive. Contraception is widespread, and the IUD is the most widely used method. However, Vietnam has one of the highest abortion rates in the world, particularly among teenagers, due to the persistence of taboos on premarital sexuality and the lack of sex education.
The aging of the population
According to the UN, population aging is the period during which the number of people over 65 rises from 7% of the population to 14%. In Vietnam, this phase began in 2015 and will end in 2035. In twenty years, therefore, the country will shift from an ageing to an elderly society. By way of comparison, this transition took 115 years in France (1865-1980). Falling birth and death rates and rising average life expectancy are the reasons why the number of elderly people is increasing faster than that of other age groups in the population. This accelerated ageing comes at a time when the country is still at an early stage of development. The government will have to invest in infrastructure and care systems for the elderly, while certain basic needs of the general population remain unmet. The ageing constraint, officially noted in 2011, has prompted the government to revise demographic policy and relax family planning measures, giving families the freedom to decide how many children they want.
The masculinization of births
Since 2006, there has been a sharp increase in the proportion of male births due to prenatal sex selection. By 2022, the ratio had risen to 111.7 male births for every 100 female births, compared with 106.2 males for every 100 females in 2000. In accusation, a collateral effect of the widespread availability of ultrasound scans, which are said to be used to select the sex of the child. Officially, sex-selective abortion is not part of Vietnamese tradition, and the National Assembly has adopted legislative measures against this still poorly documented practice. The government has announced a plan to combat gender imbalance and reduce the ratio to 107 boys for every 100 girls by 2025.
According to a Vietnamese saying, "if you have one son, then you have one descendant; but you can't say the same, even if you have ten daughters". Patriarchal values stemming from Confucianism are still prevalent in Vietnamese society, even if Confucianism as adopted in Vietnam differs from the Chinese model: Vietnamese tradition has always granted a certain freedom to women, who notably enjoyed the right to own property and equal status in the distribution of inheritance. A couple deprived of a male heir can adopt one, or pass on the burden of ancestor worship (the share of incense and fire) to the eldest daughter, who will assume it in her new home.
One of the densest countries in the world
Vietnam is one of the world's most densely populated countries. According to the 2019 census, there will be an average of 290 inhabitants/km² (compared with 259 inhabitants/km² in 2009). The average density does not, however, reflect the uneven distribution of the population. The Red River delta and the Mekong delta (south-eastern region) record the highest densities, with 1,060 inhabitants/km² and 757 inhabitants/km² respectively. In the country's two most populous cities, there are 2,398 inhabitants/km² in Hanoi and 4,363 inhabitants/km² in Ho Chi Minh City. Low-density areas are found in the mountainous north (132 inhabitants/km²) and the central highlands (107 inhabitants/km²).
The urban revolution
According to the 2019 census, the urban population reached 33,059,735, or 34.4% of the total population (+4.8% on 2009), while the rural population reached 63,149,249, or 65.6% of the total population. The average annual growth rate of the urban population over the decade 2009-2019 was +2.62%, almost six times that of the rural population (+0.44%). This urbanization process, which is part of the country's modernization and industrialization process, is not without its problems: the environment, management of the rural exodus, inadequate infrastructure...
Ethnicities of Vietnam
The Socialist Republic of Vietnam defines itself as a multinational state and recognizes 54 different ethnic groups. According to the latest census results (2019), the Viêt (or Kinh) represent 85.3% of the total population. The 53 other highly diverse ethnic minorities account for 14.7% of the population, or more than 14 million people. Only five ethnic minorities have more than one million members: the Tay, Muong, Khmer Krom, Hmong and Nung. Some ethnic groups, such as the Brâu (in Kontum province) and the O Du (in Nghe An province), number just a few hundred. The plains and deltas are almost exclusively Viêt territory. Minorities are concentrated in the mountainous northern provinces and the central highlands.
To untangle the tangle of this ethnic diversity, specialists distinguish five major linguistic families that group together the different groups.
Austro-Asiatic family. The Vietnamese language belongs to this family. This family also includes certain mountain dwellers of the central highlands (some fifteen peoples, including the Banar, Sedang and Mnông), the Khmer Krom (over a million people living in the Mekong delta), and the Muong settled in the south-west of the Red River delta (their culture, now clearly influenced by that of the Thai, is thought to be that of the archaic Viet, who have not been influenced by China).
Austronesian family. These are the country's true natives, or at least those whose presence has been attested long before that of the other groups, most of whom come from southern China. This family includes peoples living in the central highlands (Jarai, Edé) and the Cham.
Thai-Kadai family. The Thai, originally from southern China, arrived at the beginning of the Christian era and settled in the high valleys in the north of the country. They are represented by several groups: the White Thai, the Black Thai, the Nung, but above all the Tay. The Tay are the second largest ethnic group (just under 2 million) after the Viet. They live in northeastern Vietnam, particularly in the provinces of Cao Bang, Lạng Son, settled in valleys and at the foot of mountains.
Miao-yao (or Hmông-Mien) family. Speakers of these languages originate in southern China. The family includes the Hmông (also known by the pejorative Vietnamese term Meo) and the Yao (Man in colonial times, Dao [pronounced Zao] in Vietnamese). The Hmông arrived recently in northern Vietnam (19th century). They are also present in Laos, Thailand and Burma and, following the anti-Communist commitment of part of the community in Laos, form a small diaspora in the United States (see Clint Eastwood's film Gran Torino ) and... in French Guiana (political refugees, they have founded a prosperous community of around 2,000 people who, after clearing the jungle, make a living from market gardening). In Vietnam, they are subdivided into several groups recognizable by their clothing: Hmông Blanc, Hmông Bariolé (or Fleuri), Hmông Vert, Hmông Rouge, Hmông Noir. The Yao, who arrived in northern Vietnam around the 14th and 15th centuries, are, like the Hmông, subdivided into several groups: Red Yao, Sapèque Yao..
The Sino-Tibetan family. This family includes the Hoa diaspora Chinese, who make up a large urban community in the Cholon district of Ho Chi Minh City, where they have been established since the end of the 18th century, and the Tibeto-Burman group, made up of small Lolo, Hani, Lahu, Sila and Phula communities living at high altitude in remote north-western areas. Few in number in Vietnam, these ethnic groups are present in south-west China and throughout the Himalayan world.
