The results of a stabilized economic recovery
Remarkable GDP growth was maintained at 8% between 2011 and 2019, prior to the Covid-19 crisis, before recovering to 7% in 2023. While the first National Development Plan (PND 2012-2015) relied on major infrastructure works to catalyze economic recovery, the PND 2016-2020, leads to the structural transformation of the economy through industrialization and macroeconomic consolidation through a high level of productive public and private investment. According to the WTO, the country will have a trade surplus of $1.32 million in 2021, driven by agricultural exports (cocoa, cashew nuts, coffee, cotton, rubber, palm oil, bananas, etc.) and petroleum products (refined and crude). Imports are mainly fuels, capital goods and foodstuffs. The Ivorian economy has regained its position as the locomotive of West Africa, and ranks among the ten most competitive African economies.
Glaring inequalities and insufficient social progress
According to the World Bank, the poverty rate has fallen to 37.5% of the population by 2021-2022, compared with 39.4% in 2018 in Côte d'Ivoire, with the reduction being slower than economic growth, with a concentration of benefits in the cities. This still represents almost 10 million people living below the poverty line (less than US$3 a day). Where's the money for the Ivorian miracle? It's true that Ouattara's two terms in office have brought quantitative progress for the most disadvantaged. Social spending stood at 2,361 billion FCFA in 2018, compared with 845 billion FCFA during the last year of Gbagbo's presidency in 2010. Ouattara has thus kept his electoral promises, a rare feat that deserves to be emphasized. Nearly 80% of the population now has access to drinking water and electricity, compared with 55% in 2011, and the rate of access to healthcare services has risen from 44% in 2012 to 69% in 2019, thanks in particular to the Universal Health Coverage (CMU) plan, which as of October 2019 covers 3 million people. The country has rehabilitated 40,000 km of roads since 2011, built 22 bridges and 115 km of freeways, and asphalted 545 km of intercity roads. Ouattara had promised free, compulsory schooling up to the age of 15: this is now the case from ages 6 to 16.
But the poorest section of the population remains on the margins of growth. The lack of jobs and persistent unemployment, the inadequacy of public services, the inequalities between the poorest and the richest, corruption in the administration and the monopolization of wealth by a privileged few in power are all fuelling strong social tensions. Major construction projects have not enabled the poorest sections of the population to benefit from this economic upturn. "We don't lack tar, we don't eat concrete", they repeat to illustrate their dismay.
What's more, the south-north disparity creates enormous inequalities. The south of the country concentrates 85% of economic activity, as Abidjan is the hub of the business community, the region's humid tropical climate makes it ideal for growing cocoa and coffee, and the ports on the coast create strategic economic clusters. The center and north of the region are scrubland and rural savannah, where non-mechanized agriculture is a subsistence activity.
Agriculture driven by cocoa revenues
By 2021, the primary sector will account for 28% of the country's GDP and 40% of its exports (62% excluding oil). Côte d'Ivoire's population is equally divided between urban and rural dwellers (around 12.5 million each). The agricultural sector employs 46% of the workforce, half of whom work on cocoa plantations, and supports two-thirds of the population, including families. Agriculture is largely mechanized, export-oriented and boosted by foreign investors. Côte d'Ivoire is the world's1st largest producer of cocoa, as well as cashew nuts and kola nuts, the world's5th largest producer of palm oil (2nd largest in Africa), Africa's1st and the world's 7th largest producer of natural rubber (hevea), and Africa's 43rd largest producer of cotton and coffee. Along with Cameroon, Côte d'Ivoire is Africa's leading banana exporter, and the world's 13th largest. Côte d'Ivoire is the world's leading producer of cocoa, the country's "black gold". The problem is that producers' share of income currently represents only around 6% of the total value of the international chocolate sector. Negotiations have begun with traders, processors and manufacturers to increase the value of the sector in Côte d'Ivoire directly. All the more so as, with the 30% drop in production due to climatic conditions, the purchase price has skyrocketed in 2023 and 2024.
Industry and energy in strong development
Ivorian industry accounts for almost 25% of GDP. Leading the way are oil refining, energy, agri-food and construction and public works. The mining sector (gold, iron, nickel, manganese, bauxite) and the hydrocarbon sector (crude oil and natural gas) were the focus of massive government investment during Ouattara's2nd term , making them the second pillar of the Ivorian economy after agriculture. Institutional and business reforms were implemented to boost the sector.
First of all, gold mining has been significantly developed. The country produced an annual average of 25 tonnes between 2015 and 2020, compared with only half that in 2012. In energy, the government has invested 7,000 billion FCFA (over 10 billion euros) between 2011 and 2020 for the program to boost its energy park. Capacity increased by 60% over the period to 2,200 MW. The aim was to double this capacity by 2020, thanks to the new Soubré hydroelectric complex built by the Chinese and inaugurated in mid-2017, and even 6,000 MW by 2030 (with the Gribo Popoli dam still under construction, and the project for another dam in the Méagui department). The aim is to meet ever-increasing local demand, pursue exports (20% of power) and enable the development of the agri-food sector and mining activities. In terms of sustainable development, the government's 2030 target is to establish a mix composed of 60% fossil fuels and 40% renewable energy, including at least 6% photovoltaic energy. The first two solar power plants have opened in Korhogo (90 MW), while in Aboisso (south-east), a biomass plant (46 MW) has been operational since 2021. A 1,300 km extra-high voltage (225 kilovolts) power line will be inaugurated in 2022 from Côte d'Ivoire to Guinea, via Liberia and Sierra Leone.
Services and tourism on the rise
The tertiary sector accounts for 47% of Ivorian GDP. It is dominated by telecommunications, which continue to expand with the boom in mobile banking, transport (port and air), distribution and financial activities, with nearly thirty commercial banks and some thirty insurance companies.
The tourism sector is also very buoyant. Since the end of the post-electoral crisis in 2011, Côte d'Ivoire has once again become a "tourist destination". Nearly 3.4 million tourists have visited the country. Tourism's contribution to Ivorian GDP has thus risen spectacularly from 0.6% in 2011 to 7.3% in 2019, just before the Covid-19 crisis. The government's objective was to raise it to 8% by 2025, but it should even exceed 10%! The organization of the African Cup of Nations (CAN) in Abidjan in January and February 2024 has given the sector a major boost.
Assinie, with the opening of the 2x2 lane road from Bassam, itself linked to a new freeway to Abidjan, is seeing villas and hotels built along its 13 km long strip of sand and lagoon. To the east, La Côtière now links Abidjan to San Pedro, putting Grand-Lahou and Azagny National Park just 3 hours away. The new road also facilitates access to Grand Bereby and Sassandra, both of which are expected to experience a boom in tourism in the coming years.
Who is ADO, Alassane Dramane Ouattara?
His supporters have nicknamed him "Bravetchè", Dioula for "the brave". Considered a good-natured Ivorian full of qualities when in opposition, he suddenly becomes Burkinabè and full of flaws when in power. Bédié, Guéï and Gbagbo all took it in turns to call him Ivorian, then Burkinabè, depending on their interests at the time. Born in Côte d'Ivoire, he spent his entire school career in what is now Burkina Faso, where his father was originally from, before studying in the United States. Félix Houphouët-Boigny appointed him Prime Minister of Côte d'Ivoire, while he was Governor of the Central Bank of West African States (BCEAO). He then set his sights on the presidency, much to the displeasure of Henri Konan Bédié, who had been waiting for years to succeed the old man. His candidacy in the presidential elections of 1995 and 2000 was prevented by the "ivoirité" law that Konan Bédié promulgated. Laurent Gbagbo's ten-year reign brought him closer to his old enemy. In 2010 and 2015, Konan Bédié had him elected President by carry-over votes. In March 2020, he renounced his bid for a third five-year term in favor of his runner-up Amadou Gon Coulibaly. However, Gon Coulibaly died suddenly in July, and ADO decided to stand again, despite opposition denouncing his controversial3rd term. He was re-elected at the end of 2020 in a climate of relative tension. The country's major modernization projects, strong economic growth and the organization of the African Cup of Nations were all in his favor. But the extreme poverty of over a third of the population remains a major problem in the country. Despite his advanced age (82) and repeated terms of office, it would appear that he will stand for a4th term at the end of 2025, although he has not officially declared his intention to do so, which would spark off a wave of protests in the country.
The CAN, a highly anticipated event
The Africa Cup of Nations soccer tournament took place in Côte d'Ivoire in January and February 2024, in the country's main cities where stadiums were built for the occasion. Initially scheduled to take place from June to July 2023, the competition was moved to 2024 due to the rainy season in Côte d'Ivoire, which takes place at that time, which made it easier to finalize the major works begun in the country prior to the competition. Not only are the main cities now equipped with new stadiums that will be used to host other competitions and large-scale shows in Abidjan (60,000 seats), Bouaké (40,000 seats), San Pedro, Yamoussoukro and Korhogo (20,000 seats each), but above all, new roads now ensure fluid routes throughout the country. The Yamoussoukro - Bouaké freeway has been completed, as have the 2x2 Bassam-Assinie lanes and the Bouaké Korhogo road. Above all, the ambitious coastal road linking Abidjan and San Pedro, almost impassable for decades, is now complete, putting the country's two main ports within a 6-hour drive.
