Towards an emergence of Senegal in 2035?
Since 2015, economic growth has led to a number of improvements in the country, particularly in terms of infrastructure, which is being modernized in various areas. The opening of a new airport, the construction of Africa's first regional express train (TER), the opening up of the Casamance region and the ongoing construction of the Diamniadio economic hub, which promises to relieve traffic congestion in Dakar, are all investments that, while increasing public debt, offer Senegal new prospects for the future. Under the leadership of President Macky Sall, the Plan Sénégal Émergent, adopted in 2014, lays the foundations for an innovative development strategy based on a strong, sustainable economy, human development and better governance. Although several sectors are beginning to benefit from this system, enabling the country to maintain fine growth, the plan still benefits the population little, whose per capita GDP growth is still low, at around 1.1% per year. Poverty still affects almost half the population, and unemployment and illiteracy rates remain high, in a country where the population, half of whom are under 20, is growing every year. With a Human Development Index of 0.511 in 2023, there is still a long way to go before a middle class emerges capable of pulling the economy upwards. In addition to maintaining economic growth through increased private investment, the State will need to improve living conditions for its population, which will undoubtedly require major investment in health, education and employment, if it is to achieve its goal by 2035.
Tourism, an engine of development
From the conflicts in Casamance to the economic crisis of 2018, via the Ebola epidemic that ultimately didn't affect Senegal, numerous factors have disrupted the healthy state of tourism in the land of Teranga over the past twenty years. Not to mention the global health crisis caused by the coronavirus, which affected the years 2020 and 2021 and was a major loss of earnings for all tourism professionals. Despite its reputation as one of the most stable countries in Africa, Senegal has many undeniable tourist assets. Starting with its legendary welcome and hospitality, for which this sunny country is renowned. It's also a pleasant seaside destination, with over 700 km of coastline, where some beaches, notably those in Casamance, offer truly picture-postcard landscapes. The country also attracts many birdwatchers and hunters who come to indulge their passion. In recent years, the country's cultural offering has also expanded, with the opening of several museums in Dakar and Saint-Louis, most of which are private initiatives. To boost tourism, which currently accounts for 7% of GDP, Senegal is banking on the development of modern infrastructure, making it easier to get to and around the country. For example, since the opening of Blaise Diagne Airport at the end of 2017, air traffic has picked up again, with an increase of over 8%, notably with the arrival of new airlines such as Air Sénégal. Toll freeways have been built to make it easier for people to get around, and others are planned. As for the Farafenni cross-border bridge, due to open in 2019, it will not only promote economic exchanges between Senegal and Gambia, but also open up Casamance, one of the most beautiful regions of the country. The country of Teranga has set itself ambitious targets for the coming years, aiming to attract 5 million tourists by 2025.
Agriculture, a potential to exploit
Representing around 15% of the country's GDP and employing almost half the population, the agricultural sector is also tending to become more dynamic and modernized, and is now at the heart of the Plan Sénégal Émergent. Between subsistence and cash crops, Senegal is trying to find the right balance to diversify its agricultural production, achieve food self-sufficiency and increase exports. For many decades, the peanut crop, the focus of government investment, monopolized the sector, accounting for up to 80% of exports. However, from 1970 onwards, the sector experienced an unprecedented crisis, with farmers struggling to sell their harvests, resulting in a fall in prices and a significant loss of income for farmers. It wasn't until 2015 that the sector began to recover, with production of over a million tonnes of peanuts, of which China is now the main buyer. In the wake of this crisis, the government changed its strategy and implemented various action plans to develop the sector. Numerous investments were made from Saint-Louis to Podor, in the Senegal River valley, with the aim, among others, of achieving self-sufficiency in rice. Although this challenge, which was scheduled for 2017, has still not been met, Senegal's rice production has increased fourfold between 2014 and 2019. In addition to rice, the government has finally decided to make horticulture one of the sector's levers, by investing in the Senegal River valley and the Niayes coastal strip. Tomatoes, onions, green beans, corn and squash: production has been growing strongly since 2012, reaching nearly 1.6 million tonnes by 2023. Not yet enough to cover the country's entire needs, but this high-potential sector does offer some prospects for the future.
Mineral resources and hydrocarbons, promising fields?
From phosphate to gold, zircon, iron and copper, among other metals and minerals, Senegal's subsoils offer a wealth of mineral resources, only some of which the country exploits. With its new, more flexible mining code adopted in 2016, Senegal hopes to attract more and more investors and generate more resources from mineral exploitation, while protecting the surrounding populations. If properly managed, this sector could become an engine of growth and prosperity for the country in the years to come, as it currently employs around 14% of the population. With over 2.6 million tonnes already produced by 2022, phosphate is one of the mainstays of this sector, which has been exploited since the 1940s. Although Senegal is the world's 16th largest producer, it aims to reach the top 10 in the next few years. It also aims to become one of Africa's biggest gold exporters by 2035, with production reaching 16.24 tonnes in 2020. In addition to the Sabodala and Kharakhéna mines, near Kédougou, the Mako mine, which has been in operation since 2018, offers great prospects for exploitation and therefore revenue for the country. On the hydrocarbon side, the discovery since 2014 of major oil and gas deposits off the coast of Senegal has raised the hopes of both the government and the local population. Several foreign oil companies have invested in the country to exploit these resources, whose reserves are estimated at over a billion barrels of oil and around 1,100 billion m³ of gas. Senegal will thus soon enter the ranks of hydrocarbon-producing countries, and could even become one of Africa's top 10 gas producers. But if this windfall offers new prospects for the country, will it benefit the population? Only time will tell...
The country's issues
While politics, and democracy in particular, place Senegal at the forefront of many African nations, its economy does not. Dakar is far from West Africa's economic leader, a role more readily attributed to Abidjan in Côte d'Ivoire. Its GDP, despite an average annual growth rate of 6.5%, is still too low.
Senegal, one of Africa's most heavily subsidized countries, is struggling to overcome its foreign debt, estimated at almost 60% of GDP by 2023, and rising every year. The bigwigs of Dakar, home to 90% of the country's industries, cannot compensate for unemployment, which stands at around 15% of the population. This rate rises to 27% for the under-25s. The exodus abroad is no mean feat in some provinces either, as work is reputed to be easier to find in European countries. This explains why there are so many people in Podor and Bakel who, in Paris, get up earlier than the average and dress in green to take care of the garbage cans or to do difficult and unhealthy jobs. All in order to send a money order at the end of the month and support their families back home. The exodus is not confined to the middle class, and the country suffers cruelly from a lack of elites. The country's economy is tending to be taken in hand by international bodies such as the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank (WB). The structural results are there, but industrialists criticize inadequate models imported from other countries and poorly applied to the Senegalese context. However, Senegal aspires to lift its economy by 2035, diversify its economic resources, modernize the country and improve people's daily lives. Perhaps the revenues from its future hydrocarbon developments will help it in its quest for a better future for both its economy and its people?
