Mining, the engine of the economy
For several decades now, the mining sector has been the main driver of the country's economy, accounting for more than 20% of annual GDP and, above all, more than 85% of exports. The acceleration of the exploitation of bauxite reserves has clearly contributed to this development and has boosted economic growth, keeping it above 5% since 2018. Guinea has even become the world's second largest producer in 2019. Other mineral resources, such as gold and diamonds, whose proven reserves are still significant, have also contributed to this momentum. The exploitation of iron ore reserves, which has long been announced but has been postponed several times, should in the coming years give a further boost to the country's economy, but above all provide new infrastructure, jobs and revenue for the state. The signing in March 2022 of a framework agreement on the exploitation of the Mount Simandou deposit in Forest Guinea suggests that commercial production could begin in 2025. To be continued
The agricultural sector, realities far from ambitions
The agricultural sector, which contributes about 20% of the country's GDP but employs more than 50% of the active population, remains a sector in the making and is struggling to take advantage of the resources available: arable land, water resources, territorial diversity, and a young population.
Certainly, within the framework of the National Agricultural Investment and Food Security Plan (PNIASA), progress has been made with the gradual improvement in access to inputs (seeds and fertilizers), equipment, particularly subsidized equipment, the construction of irrigation facilities and the improvement of the network of rural roads. As a result, rice production has steadily increased, covering 80% of demand. Major efforts have also been made to develop the groundnut and cashew nut sectors, but with insignificant results to date. In terms of livestock and animal production, certain sectors such as poultry have experienced real growth. However, broiler production is blocked in its development by competition from very low-cost imports. Many of the promises that were supposed to help producers overcome these constraints have remained unfulfilled. Much remains to be done.
Overall, the progress made is far from being equal to the challenges. Barely 10% of arable land is under cultivation and the use of mechanization and inputs remains low
Food self-sufficiency is far from being achieved with, for example, rice imports continuing to rise.
Infrastructure, the hope of better days
With the completion of the Souapiti hydroelectric dam announced for 2022 and the ramping up of its production, Guinea hopes to finally put an end to its chronic lack of electricity: no more untimely power cuts for the Guinean population? In any case, this new major development wanted by Alpha Conde gives hope, especially since it should also increase the production of the Kaléta dam located downstream, since 2015. In addition, two other hydroelectric projects (Koukoutamba and Amaria) currently under construction will further increase the national production capacity in a few years. This strong increase in electricity production should also have a beneficial effect on the economy as a whole and help meet the growing needs of current and future mining and industrial activities. In the telecom sector, continued investment has resulted in a cell phone penetration rate of over 90%. At the same time, the number of Internet users has grown exponentially. However, the rollout of 4G seems to be slow and limited to the capital. However, the arrival of a new operator in this segment could give it a boost
As far as roads and runways are concerned, after significant progress in the 2010s, the general impression is that the network is deteriorating again. It is true that the huge construction site of the RN1, an essential axis to serve the hinterland, is being completed and should, once finished, bring a real improvement in traffic. But at the same time, too many roads and tracks are once again difficult to use and make travel to and from the interior of the country complicated. This is still a major obstacle for the movement of goods and people and more globally for the development of the country!
Major societal issues
The challenge for the new team in power and those that follow will be to find ways to transform all these advances in infrastructure and mining into real, concrete progress for the Guinean people. Guineans still too often have the feeling that the progress made only benefits an elite and that they are the ones left behind, or even the victims. The negative consequences of mining in maritime Guinea, particularly in terms of the environment, and the disastrous management of population displacements following the construction of hydroelectric dams, are all elements that reinforce this impression.
With more than 40% of the population living below the poverty line, a human development index that ranks Guinea 178th out of 189, youth out-migration that continues to grow, a health system that is still largely deficient, and an education system that is struggling to play its role as a social elevator, the challenges are immense. Insurmountable? Given the country's potential and resources, one would like to think not.
But in a country where corruption, which often goes unpunished, has become the only system of governance, and where the justice system is still struggling to assert its independence and probity despite real progress, strong decisions and actions are needed to meet these challenges.
The first decisions taken under the aegis of the country's new strongman, Colonel Doumbouya, seem to indicate a real desire for change. The next few months will be decisive for the future of the country.
