Uncertain origins
Scientists and historians are still searching for the exact origins of the Croats. Theories of Slavic or Persian ancestry are the most commonly accepted. More certain is the origin of the word. The Romans, who feared the native tribes attacking them with frightening cries of Huraa! Huraa! U rat!", "En guerre!", these cries would have given rise to Hurati. The Latins, who don't use the h sound in their language, baptized them with the word Kroati, from which Croatie is derived. There's also a more recent version dating back to the 17th century, when the kings of France (Louis XIII and Louis XIV) had a regiment of Slavic cavalry in their service, who wore a black cloth over their shirt collars. They were called the Royal-Cravates, a proper name that became "cravate" for Croatian.
Long landlocked, the territory had three main population centers: shepherds in the Dinaric Alps, farmers in the countryside and fishermen on the shores of the Adriatic. This geographical distribution explains why some natural environments are still virtually empty today (mountains, forests, deserted islands), while the fertile soils of mainland Croatia, the mild climate of the coast and the cities concentrate the highest population rates. After the Second World War, advances in industrialization and the development of tourism accelerated the desertification of the countryside. In the mountains, there are no more than 20 or 23 inhabitants per square kilometer, for an overall density of 72.5 inhabitants per square kilometer. Around 60% of the population lives in urban areas, while one in four lives in one of Croatia's four main cities (Zagreb, Split, Rijeka and Osijek).
The last war in the former Yugoslavia (1991-1995) changed the spatial distribution of the population
More than 20,000 people died in Croatia as a result of the conflict. A large proportion of the population was displaced or fled to safer areas on the Adriatic coast or abroad. Croats from Bosnia-Herzegovina, who had been an integral part of the population alongside Bosnians and Serbs since the Middle Ages, fled to Croatia, which at the height of the war took in up to 800,000 people. By 2009, the vast majority of refugees had returned to Bosnia-Herzegovina. The population of Serbian origin has also suffered heavy losses. Some 3%, compared with 12% before the start of the war, or 135,000 Serbs, live in Croatia, mainly in the regions of Vukovar-Srijem, Sisak-Moslavina, Lika-Senj, Karlovac, Šibenik-Knin and Osijek-Baranja.
Today, the country is characterized by a high degree of homogeneity: 80.4% of the population is of Croatian origin. Yet the question of diversity was raised as early as the declaration of independence. The preamble to the Constitution (December 22, 1990) stresses its importance from the outset: "The Republic of Croatia is constituted as the national state of the Croatian people, which is also the state of those who, while belonging to other nations and minorities, are its citizens: serbs, Slovenes, Czechs, Slovaks, Italians, Hungarians, Jews, Muslims and others, who are guaranteed equality with citizens of Croatian nationality and respect for their national rights in accordance with the democratic rules of the UN and other countries of the free world. " These national minorities enjoy the freedom to teach in their own language, cultural autonomy and representation in parliament and local government. On the downside, 3,000 stateless or threatened stateless people live in Croatia without papers, most of them Roma.
Unprecedented migration crises
Historically, mafia networks have always brought in illegal immigration via the "Balkan route", via Greece, Slovenia, Italy and the countries of Northern Europe. Autumn-winter 2015-2016, as a direct consequence of the wars in Syria and Iraq and tensions in the Middle East (Afghanistan, Pakistan), thousands of refugees and would-be exiles arrived at the Serbo-Croatian border. As the border with Hungary became difficult and then impossible to cross, these transit migrants found themselves stranded on Croatian territory (over 35,000 people in September 2015). Camps were opened to register them and accommodate them for a time, notably in Slavonski Brod. Tensions were rekindled between neighboring countries (Hungary, Slovenia, Austria, Serbia), and in Croatia, as in the EU, we witnessed the rise of the extreme right.
This management of the migratory flow has cooled relations between Zagreb and Ljubljana, which already had a territorial dispute, with each country claiming the Bay of Piran. According to the European Court of Justice, a member state has the right to authorize the arrival of migrants on humanitarian grounds only on its own territory. Austria and Slovenia could therefore legitimately send asylum seekers who had arrived illegally on their territory back to Croatia. In the end, EU members voted to extend the agreement with Turkey, and to strengthen border protection. Then, the Croatian government announced a pilot project to better integrate asylum seekers (1,600 people). Finally, in 2021, the country abolished the quota system for foreign workers. Since then, thousands of Nepalese, Indians and Filipinos have settled in the country.
Welcoming Ukrainian refugees in 2022 was another challenge. While the country applies the principles of European solidarity, this has led to increased public spending and inflationary pressures. However, in the long term, this influx of labor could also benefit the repopulation of the country.
Demographics at half-mast
Declining demographics are a catastrophe for the country, which is seeing its Central and Eastern regions suffer this decline with even greater intensity. The country's population fell by 9% between 2011 and 2021. This demographic upheaval can be explained by the rise in mortality caused by the last war in the former Yugoslavia and the aging of the population. Inequalities, recurrent economic difficulties - tourism does not benefit everyone - the persistence of corruption, clientelism and the lack of prospects for young people and graduates add to the crisis and explain these departures. Paradoxically, Croatia's entry into the EU in 2013 has increased emigration. The realization of the European dream has opened the doors of the single market to thousands of Croats, who have found better working conditions and higher wages. More than 250,000 Croats have left to swell the diaspora in Germany, Austria and Ireland. Keeping demographics under control remains a priority for the country's future, and a major political issue. In January 2022, the government launched a major program: a substantial sum of up to €26,000 is allocated to expatriates who return to live in the country. Similar measures could follow in sparsely populated rural areas, to encourage future business start-ups.
(Sources: Croatian Statistics Office, www.dzs.hr)
