Solving the debt crisis
The government of the new Zambian president, Hakainde Hichilema, who will be elected in 2021, expects its economy to grow by 4 per cent a year in the medium term. He says he wants to focus on resolving the country's debt crisis. This is a matter of the utmost urgency, since in 2021 the country was the first in the midst of the Covid-19 pandemic to default on its abysmal sovereign debt. This is not a first since in the 1990s, the country had already experienced a similar crisis with a debt representing 260% of its GDP. This time, it amounts to 130% of its GDP... Inevitable austerity measures that are on the agenda will again undermine the population. Inflation, which is hovering around 10% on food and fuel, has added to the difficulties of daily life since the start of the war in Ukraine. The opposition will not fail to mobilize a population fed up with the austerity measures and to ally itself with the particularly powerful unions. The growth of the country's economy, which is quite high, is not likely to reduce poverty because of the unequal distribution of the profits of the mining industry to a population that does not see any of them. The new president has nevertheless made schooling free for all up to the university level and has invested in the recruitment of teachers and hospital staff.
Mining to the rescue of the Zambian economy
It is hoped that the country will be able to avoid a political and humanitarian crisis and recover economically with good prospects. Indeed, Zambia is expected to increase its copper exports, due to increased domestic production and global demand for electric cars (which use twice as much copper). It also recently opened a nickel mine, which is essential for the batteries in all our electronic devices (computers and telephones in particular). However, the economic slowdown in China - a key trading partner and the largest producer of electric vehicles - remains a risk for the Zambian economy.
Zambia is Africa's2nd largest copper producer, 7th largest in the world (800,696 tons of copper in 2021) and a major cobalt producer (247 tons in 2021). Even with economic diversification, the mining sector still represents the country's primary export product. This mineral, which made Zambia's fortune, was also its undoing when its price collapsed over the course of history. Today, its high price is giving a boost to the Zambian economy. The price of copper has fallen from $8,569 per ton in 2012, to $4,471.79 in 2016, before rebounding to $9,972.10 per ton by 2022! Among its infrastructure, near Solwezi, Kansanshi is the 8th largest copper mine in the world and leading gold mine in Zambia. In 2021, it produced 202,159 tons of copper and 128,199 ounces of gold. The Mufulir mine in the center of the country is the largest underground mine in Africa, with 10,000 human ants working in its depths. It produced 80,000 tons of copper in 2021. Not far away, the Nkana mine produces copper as well as cobalt. There is also the Konkola mining complex near Chingola, the Lumwana mine near Solwezi.
In addition, the Zambian subsoil (mainly the Copperbelt) contains the world's largest reserves of copper and cobalt. A new project has just been signed in Kalumbila concerning the exploitation by First Quantum Minerals of deposits of nickel (used in technologies), cobalt and copper, essential elements for the production of batteries for electric vehicles. The project will create 18,000 jobs in the region.
In addition to copper and cobalt, Zambia has significant deposits of precious stones (amethyst, aquamarine, tourmaline, garnet and even diamond). But the most remarkable exploitation is that of emeralds, whose quality is, according to specialists, sometimes comparable to that of Colombian gems. Although the first emeralds were discovered in the Copperbelt in the 1930s, this very lucrative activity has developed over the past 15 years. Zambia supplies 15% of the world's emerald demand, with massive exports to India and Israel. Gold, silver, uranium, coal and marble round out Zambia's wealth of minerals.
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(entdossierthemarub)18526:texteProblems with power outages
Hydroelectricity generated by its dams contributes more than 75% of Zambia's electricity production. Zambia has been experiencing power outages and load shedding every dry season for years. These problems are real in Lusaka as they are in the rest of the country. In 2022, the Minister of Energy announced the rationing of electricity supply to domestic consumers from 15 December - up to six hours a day of load shedding - following a sharp drop in water levels in Lake Kariba, threatening hydropower production. Water levels in the lake have dropped to 4.1% of the usable storage for the Kariba North Bank power plant in Zambia (1,080 megawatts capacity) and the Kariba South Bank on the Zimbabwean side of the lake (1,050 megawatts capacity). To avoid a complete shutdown of the two power plants, the Zambezi River Authority has asked Zimbabwe to reduce production to a maximum of 300 megawatts and Zambia to a maximum of 800 megawatts.
Unevenly shared tourism revenues
Zambia's tourism sector, which has long lagged behind its southern African neighbors, has experienced an exceptional boom over the past decade and is now an important growth factor for the country. Favored by the development of airports and access roads to national parks, the sector has also benefited from the disenchantment of travelers with Zimbabwe. Zambia's political stability and economic performance has encouraged an influx of foreign capital and tourists.
Since tourism in southern Africa is largely based on luxury safaris, there is a need to protect the animals within the national parks, a task successfully carried out by the Zambian Wildlife Authority (ZAWA). As time goes by, animal populations in the parks are recovering. At the same time, foreign investors are benefiting from significantly lower taxes. In fact, the owners and managers of hotels, lodges and agencies are mostly white Zambians, Europeans or South Africans. The staff of these lodges, including safari guides, are often recruited from the surrounding villages. Tourism thus appears to be an essential factor in rural development and in the enhancement of communities. However, the salaries of the small hands (housekeepers, gardeners, masseuses) are often very low compared to the profits made by the luxury lodges, and these populations have difficulty subsisting unless they reach key positions such as safari guides. Nevertheless, the Zambia National Community Resources Board Association (ZNCRBA) deplores the fact that since the transformation of ZAWA into the National Parks and Wildlife Department, the financial windfall has not been passed on to the villagers.
Lion hunts outrage public opinion
Lions are expected to become extinct by 2050 according to scientific estimates. If there are only 20,000 now, there will be only 10,000 left in 2035 before their final extinction accelerated by genetic depletion at the end. Yet, hunting is allowed while the species is decimated at more than 40% in 20 years. In Zambia, as in other safari countries of the continent (South Africa, Tanzania, Zimbabwe, Botswana ...) its hunting is legal and authorized. Trophy hunting has always been strictly controlled and restricted to specific Game Management Areas (GMAs). It is true that the slaughter of certain species that are too numerous in the savannahs does not pose any particular problem for the defenders of nature, on the contrary, we know that the money benefits the management of parks and protected areas and that an overpopulation of animals is not always good for an ecosystem. Hunting quotas are established according to species and seasons. On the other hand, the hunting quota is very controversial when the species is threatened with extinction, or considered vulnerable. For the average citizen concerned about species such as lions disappearing from the planet, it is unacceptable to legally take the life of an endangered animal. This crime appears particularly heinous when it is perpetrated for simple amusement. If the main argument in Zambia is to give permits to kill "old lions" that would no longer be able to reproduce, it is not justified by the need to kill them. On the contrary, it greatly unbalances the sociology of the groups in the region, because the old males have a role. Their killing contributes to the rarefaction of the felines, which are already scarce in Zambia. One can then wonder what ethics these countries can have in terms of animal protection. The financial windfall is of course the primary justification for these authorizations. This market brings in an average of between US$13,500 and US$49,000 per lion killed. In addition, researchers and guides have noted that some males disappear when crossing the border of parks, killed by hunters who lure them out of their sanctuary, leaving lionesses with litters without a protective male.
In Zimbabwe, the photo of an American dentist in front of the remains of the old Cecil lion, the most famous of the country, lured out of Hwange National Park illegally and killed after 40 hours of tracking, stripped of his transmitter collar, had moved and outraged the entire planet in 2015. Similarly, in South Luangwa, the planned killing of Ginger, one of the park's mascots with her brother and companion Salt, was narrowly avoided on the outskirts of the national park where they were based. It was the color of her abnormally dark coat and mane that saved her from the hunters. The authorization for the slaughter was barely suspended due to local opposition, for fear of the emotion that such a killing as Cecil's could create. They have since been legally shot by a hunter in his rightful place at the park's border... The decline in the lion population is currently being studied by researchers from the Zambian Carnivore Program in South Luangwa using radio collars.
Elephants, equally controversial trophies
Among these trophies authorized for import into the United States and Europe: elephant ivory tusks. This species is classified as vulnerable, as there are only about 415,000 elephants left in Africa, compared to 10 million in the 1930s. In Zambia, it is estimated that 90% of the elephant population has been decimated. Especially in the 1970s and 1980s, when Zambia's national parks, far from the eyes of the world, were a favorite playground for poachers. Elephants, the largest land animals, paid a heavy price. At that time, a kilo of ivory sold for US$300. In 1990, the CITES (Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species) banned the ivory trade. Rangers were mobilized and, thanks to the combined efforts of the government, ZAWA and conservation organizations, the populations gradually recovered. Only 22,000 remain in the country, mainly in South Luangwa. Botswana is their African sanctuary, which has more than 70% of the African elephant population that survived the great massacre, with 293,000 elephants. But this country, like Zambia, allows the hunting of elephant trophies for its lucrative economy. Practice accentuated since the former American president, Donald Trump, allowed again the import of trophies from Africa in 2017 in the USA. The argument put forward was that this would reduce the risk of conflict with local populations and return money to local communities. In reality, it is totally financial. In 2017, a hunter posed on the back of a freshly shot elephant in Zambia, an "iconic tusker", an elephant with huge tusks, the biggest ever killed in a good decade. Funny publicity. But it reflects a reality: trophy hunting is allowed in the Luangwa Valley, on Kafue Flats and Bangweulu Swamp, in government conservation areas or on private ranches. And the oldest elephants, which have the knowledge necessary for herds to survive, are preferentially shot.
The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service proposed new restrictions on U.S. imports of African elephant trophies in November 2022. Not an outright ban, but providing annual certification to ensure that elephant populations are stable or increasing, the proposed rule would prohibit imports of elephants from countries whose national wildlife laws do not meet the requirements of the Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species. Zambia, but also Botswana, Mozambique and Tanzania currently have national legislation that may not meet CITES requirements and would probably not be allowed to export elephant trophies to the United States. This would significantly hurt the trophy business in Zambia.
