Demographics
In 2022, Bosnia and Herzegovina will have a population of 3.2 million, according to the World Bank. As in all Balkan countries, the population is currently declining. But the phenomenon is aggravated here by the effects of the war in Bosnia-Herzegovina (1992-1995). While the country's population increased by 69% between 1950 and 1990, it fell sharply by 20% during the conflict: 4.4 million inhabitants in 1992, compared to 3.5 million in 1995. This was due to the deaths of about 100,000 people (mainly Bosnian civilians) and large-scale outflows during the hostilities. Since 1995, the poor economic situation and continuing tensions between communities have led to a decline in the birth rate (1.24 children per woman in 2020) and continued emigration. Thus, despite an increase in average life expectancy (77.4 years in 2021), the country's population is expected to fall below 3 million in the 2030s. While the population density is currently 65 inhabitants/km², there is already desertification in the countryside. However, Bosnia and Herzegovina is still a very rural country with only 50% of the population living in cities. The five main urban areas are Sarajevo (475,000 inhabitants), Banja Luka (190,000), Tuzla (115,000), Bijeljina (110,000) and Mostar (105,000). Of the three entities, the most populous is the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina with about 2 million inhabitants. There are about half as many inhabitants in the Bosnian Serb Republic and less than 90,000 in the Brčko district.
Bosnians
This term designates two categories of population. On the one hand, all inhabitants of Bosnia and Herzegovina are Bosnians: this is their citizenship, which appears, for example, on their passports. On the other hand, all inhabitants must choose a "nationality", i.e. a community or group. Until 2015, citizens could choose from four categories: "Bosnian," "Serb," "Croat" or "other. But a change came with the birth of Faruk Salaka in April 2014. The parents of this baby fought to have their child registered by the administration as a "Bosnian." They won their case in February 2015: little Faruk Salaka thus became the first inhabitant of the country to be a "Bosnian". However, to date, very few people have opted for this new "nationality": a few hundred, or even a few thousand at most, because the inhabitants remain very attached to the old "nationalities", especially since these give the right to advantages, notably in terms of political representation, access to education, etc.
Bosnians
They are estimated to be about 1.6 million and officially represent 50.1% of the population. The term "Bosnian" refers to Slavic inhabitants of Muslim religion and/or tradition. According to the institutions, Bosnians speak "Bosnian", a language almost identical to the country's other two official languages (Serbian and Croatian). As a result of "ethnic cleansing" by Bosnian Serb forces in 1992-1995, Bosniaks now reside primarily in the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina, where they make up 70.4 per cent of the population. Within this entity, they constitute more than 80% of the population in five of the ten cantons: Sarajevo, Tuzla, Una-Sana (Bihać), Zenica-Doboj and Goražde. They are also the majority in the Central Bosnia canton (Travnik) with 58% of the population and make up 41% of the inhabitants of the Herzegovina-Neretva canton (Mostar). Within the Bosnian Serb Republic, Bosniaks account for 14% of the population and are mostly present in the eastern part, near Serbia and Montenegro. Finally, in the district of Brčko, they form the main group with 43% of the population. Like Serbs, Croats, Slovenes or Montenegrins, Bosnians are descendants of Slavs who mixed with previous Balkan peoples from the sixth century. The "Bosnian" identity has been forged over the centuries. There are three important stages: the foundation of the kingdom of Bosnia in 1154, the creation of the Bosnian Church in 1252, under the influence of the Christian revolutionary movement of the Bogomils ("the Cathars of the Balkans"), and the Ottoman domination from 1463 onwards, which led to the Islamization of a whole part of the inhabitants, called "Bosnians" to differentiate them from the Serbian and Croatian Christians living on the same territory. Today, the Bosnians are culturally very close to the Serbs and Croats with a common language and traditions. But they are distinguished by following the major Muslim holidays (even if they are generally not very religious) and being historically the most urbanized and best educated population of the country. The term "Bosnian" is also used to designate most of the Islamic Slavs of the Balkan Peninsula, whether or not they are originally from Bosnia-Herzegovina. Bosnians are found mainly in Serbia (150,000) and Montenegro (90,000).
Bosno-Serbes
They are estimated to be about 900,000 and officially represent 30.8% of the population. But they have long been the largest group ahead of the Bosnians (44% as late as 1961). The term "Bosnian-Serb" refers to the Slavic inhabitants of the Serbian Orthodox Christian religion and/or tradition in Bosnia-Herzegovina. However, they call themselves "Serbs" or "Bosnian Serbs". According to the institutions, the Bosnian Serbs speak Serbian, a language almost identical to Bosnian and Croatian, although it is written in theory in the Cyrillic alphabet. Serbian is one of the three official languages of Bosnia and Herzegovina. It is also the official language of Serbia and one of the two official languages of Kosovo. Since 1995, Bosnian Serbs have resided primarily in the Serbian Republic of Bosnia, where they represent 81.5% of the population. They constitute 2.4 percent of the population in the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina and 34.6 percent in the Brčko district. The Serbian identity has been built up gradually since the sixth century. There are three main stages: the foundation of the Kingdom of Serbia (in southern Serbia and Kosovo) in 1166 with the Nemanjić dynasty, which converted to Orthodoxy under the influence of the Byzantines, the Ottoman victory of Kosovo Polje (in Kosovo) in 1389, which remains for the Serbs the symbol of the beginning of a cultural resistance, and the two world wars during which the Serbs suffered appalling losses caused in particular by the Bulgarians, Croats, Albanians and, to a lesser extent, by the Bosnians. The Serbian Orthodox Church is the main factor of unity of the Serbs. Thus, historically, the Bosnian-Serbs are the most religious inhabitants of the country. They are also marked by more rural and military traditions. Elsewhere in the Balkans, Serbs are mainly present in Serbia (83% of the 6.8 million inhabitants) and Montenegro (28% of the 600,000 inhabitants). Finally, it should be noted that a large number of Bosnian Serbs have dual citizenship with Serbia.
Bosnian-Croats
They are estimated to be around 500,000 and officially represent 15.4% of the population. The term "Bosnian-Croat" refers to the Slavic inhabitants of the Roman Catholic religion and/or tradition in Bosnia-Herzegovina. They call themselves "Croats", "Bosnian Croats" or "Herzegovinian Croats". According to the institutions, the Bosnian Croats speak Croatian, a language that is almost identical to Bosnian and Serbian. It is one of the three official languages in Bosnia and Herzegovina and the official language of Croatia. Since 1995, the Bosnian-Croats reside mainly in the regions near Dalmatia (southern Croatia) and the majority of them have dual citizenship with Croatia. In the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina, they represent 22.4 per cent of the population and more than 75 per cent in three of the entity's ten cantons: Western Herzegovina, Posavina (enclaves in the north of the country) and Canton 10 (Tropolje). They are also the majority (53%) in the canton of Herzegovina-Neretva (Mostar). In addition, they account for 2.4% of the population of the Bosnian Serb Republic and 22.6% of the population of the Brčko district. Since the sixth century, the Croatian identity has been forged through contact with other Balkan peoples, but also under the influence of Western powers (Papacy, Venice, Austro-Hungarian Empire). Three decisive dates are remembered: in 679, the assembly of Duvno (today Tomislavgrad, in Tropolje) marks the first great division between the papacy and the Byzantines, making Croatia and part of Bosnia-Herzegovina "historically Catholic" lands, in 1068, Krešimir IV founded the first Croatian kingdom by uniting Croatia and Dalmatia. In 1934, the assassination of the Serbian king of Yugoslavia in Marseille remains the symbol of the Croats' refusal of a Serbian takeover of Yugoslavia. Finally, their Catholic faith places the Croats (like the Slovenes) halfway between the Slavic world and the Latin world. Having undergone little Byzantine and Ottoman influence, the Bosnian-Croats are clearly less "orientalized" than the Bosnians and Bosnian-Serbs. Elsewhere in the Balkans, Croats are mainly present in Croatia (90% of the 4 million inhabitants) and in the Serbian province of Vojvodina (47,000 inhabitants).
Minorities
They number between 80,000 and 100,000, or less than 3 percent of the country's population. At the national level, 17 minorities are recognized and theoretically protected. However, these minorities are also heavily affected by emigration. As a result, some recognized minorities simply no longer exist. The Roma are the largest and only minority whose population is growing. Today, they number between 60,000 and 80,000. Coming from the Indian subcontinent, their ancestors entered the Balkans in the 13th century. Once mainly settled in the territory of the present-day Serbian Republic of Bosnia, the Roma were driven out during the 1992-1995 war and are now mainly present in the canton of Tuzla (Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina). This is the community in the country that suffers the most discrimination (school dropout, unemployment, racism...). The second group is the Albanians. Estimated at around 10,000, they live mainly in Sarajevo. Originally from Kosovo and Croatia, where the Albanian-speaking minority of Arbanasis resides, they arrived here during the Ottoman era. Then come the Montenegrins: more than 3,000 in Sarajevo, Banja Luka and Trebinje. Other minorities from the former Yugoslavia include about 2,000 Macedonians and 400 Slovenes. There are also several small groups of descendants of families from the former Austro-Hungarian Empire who settled here at the end of the 19th century: about 200 Slovaks, 300 Russians, 400 Germans, 500 Poles, 600 Czechs, 800 Hungarians, about 1,000 Italians and about the same number of Ukrainians. The latter were mainly settled in the north, in Prnjavor and Banja Luka, where 10,000 Ukrainians had settled around 1890 when they arrived from the Austro-Hungarian province of Galicia (now in Poland). The Italians arrived in the same region and at the same time. Originally from northern Italy (Trentino), their descendants are still in the majority in some villages such as Štivor (near Prnjavor). Two minorities still officially recognized seem to have disappeared: the Ruthenians and the Romanians. Their presence also dates back to the Austro-Hungarian period, but each group numbered only about 100 people before the last war. Finally, two minorities from the Ottoman era have seen their numbers decline sharply in the twentieth century. There are still about a thousand Turks and about as many Jews, mainly in Sarajevo. The latter are mostly descendants of Jews expelled from Spain in 1492 and welcomed by the Ottomans in Bosnia in 1581. They numbered 14,000 before the Second World War, but about 10,000 of them were killed by the Nazis and their Croatian allies. It should be noted, however, that the Jews are probably the oldest of the country's current communities. Their presence dates back to the end of Antiquity. The remains of the synagogue of Dabravina, near Zenica, which dates from the Roman or Byzantine period, bear witness to this.
Foreigners
Bosnia and Herzegovina is facing a new phenomenon of massive immigration with the arrival of about 100,000 people from Muslim countries since 2015 (the equivalent of more than 2 million people compared to the French population). There are two distinct trends that concern mainly the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina. On the one hand, there is the settlement of 20,000 to 40,000 nationals of Arab countries of the Gulf (Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Kuwait ...), especially in Ilidža, the chic suburb of Sarajevo. They have chosen to acquire a primary or secondary residence because of the country's appeal. This follows the Arab Spring (2010-2012) which made destinations such as Tunisia and Egypt less attractive for tourists, expatriates and investors from the Gulf States. The latter have thus fallen back on Bosnia-Herzegovina, which has two advantages in their eyes: an "exotic" character in terms of its architecture, its customs or its climate, since it is in Europe; a certain ease of living according to the strict rules of Islam, since there is a large Muslim community as well as a large number of mosques and halal stores. The other recent trend is the arrival of migrants: refugees mainly from Syria, Afghanistan and Kosovo. At first, they were just passing through on their way to the European Union. But when neighboring EU member Croatia closed most of its border crossings in 2015, several thousand migrants were stranded in Bosnia and Herzegovina. Crossings to Croatia continued, however, but illegally and perilously (about 10,000 per year), while accommodation camps with often inhumane living conditions were created, mainly in Sarajevo and Bihać, near the border. At the peak of the crisis, from 2018 to 2021, Bosnia and Herzegovina would thus have hosted 70,000 refugees. However, since the end of 2021, the number of crossings has been slightly decreasing, with some of the would-be immigrants for the EU now preferring to try their luck in Serbia and Romania to reach Hungary. Bosnia and Herzegovina also has about 30,000 legal foreign nationals on its territory, including nearly 2,000 French speakers. These are mainly families of diplomats and staff of international companies (such as Sanofi, Schneider or L'Oréal for France) or members of charitable associations (very numerous since the war) as well as binational families. Finally, there is the presence of 1,600 military personnel from Eufor (or the European force Althea) which, although led by the EU, includes Austrian, Hungarian and Romanian contingents as well as Turkish and Chilean. Since 2004, Eufor has taken over from Nato (IFOR and SFOR missions) to enforce the 1995 peace agreements.
Diaspora
It is very important, since it is estimated that more than 2 million Bosnians live abroad. According to the World Bank, it is the first country in the Balkans and the sixteenth in the world in terms of emigration. Several waves of departures have taken place since the 20th century. For example, after the Serbs took control of Yugoslavia in 1918, many Bosnian-Croats fled to Austria, the United States and France. Another example is the agreement between socialist Yugoslavia and Turkey in 1963, which encouraged Muslim populations (Bosnians, Turks and Albanians) to settle in Turkey. But it was the wars that caused the most displacement. Thus, during the years 1941-1945, many Roma and Bosnian-Serbs left for Serbia in order to escape the massacres committed by the Croatian ustachis. The conflict of 1992-1995 is different, however, since it provoked an emigration that continues today. The recent diaspora (since 1992) is mainly concentrated in five countries, the first of which is Germany. Germany has nearly 400,000 people born in Bosnia and Herzegovina (mostly Bosnians), plus children born there and Germans of Bosnian origin. There are 170,000 Bosnian citizens in Austria, which has the highest proportion of exiles from former Yugoslavia on its soil. The United States has a community of 350,000 Bosnians, but this includes both Americans of Bosnian origin and recently arrived families (about 100,000 people) and their children born there. Serbia and Croatia have received about 300,000 Bosnian-Serbs and Bosnians in the former and about 100,000 Bosnian-Croats in the latter. The rest of the diaspora then lives mainly in Scandinavia (nearly 200,000 Bosnian citizens in Norway, Sweden and Denmark), Australia (40,000), Italy (31,000) and France (30,000). All these exiles have a considerable impact on the country's economy, since they invest more than one billion euros in Bosnia-Herzegovina every year. However, the Bosnian authorities do not do much for them, for example to encourage them to return. As a result, ties are becoming increasingly tenuous. Since 1995, about 100,000 members of the diaspora have renounced their Bosnian citizenship.
