Ending violence and drug trafficking
The 2016 peace accords were signed only with FARC. The ELN - Colombia's largest guerrilla group since the peace accords - is still active in 9 of the country's 32 departments, with ambitions that are more criminal than ideological. Far from taking joint action, the ELN and FARC dissidents (ex-guerrilla members who did not accept the peace accords, plus new recruits, 5,200 fighters in total by 2022) clash in lawless areas for control of territories left vacant by the demobilized FARC. Both guerrillas and paramilitaries are involved in a wide range of criminal activities: extortion, kidnapping, illegal mining, petrol smuggling, drug production and trafficking, control of the border paths(trochas) used by Venezuelan migrants to enter Colombia, etc. The main victims are, as always, the local population. The main victims are, as always, the civilian population, caught between guerrillas and the regular army, who also have to deal with threats from right-wing paramilitaries and drug traffickers. FARC ex-combatants who have laid down their arms are particularly targeted by targeted assassinations (300 according to the UN between 2016 and 2021), as were demobilized M-19 and FARC members in the 80s and 90s. The same applies to social lideres, representatives of social, human rights and environmental organizations, as well as Afro-Colombian and indigenous communities. In all, at least 180 human rights defenders were murdered in 2023. Colombia is one of the most dangerous countries in the world for activists, and the most dangerous for environmental activists. In total, there were more than 700 "targeted assassinations" of social leaders and activists between 2016 and 2019. One of the main reasons for this is the failure of Iván Duque's government to implement the peace agreements in the areas abandoned by FARC. Coca production, always more profitable than any other agricultural crop, is still very much present in the territory, despite numerous state-sponsored reintegration programs. Most coca cultivation is concentrated in the departments of Norte de Santander, Putumayo, Cauca and Nariño, close to the porous borders with Venezuela and Ecuador. Some 230,000 families make their living from harvesting coca leaves and making the basic paste used to produce cocaine in clandestine laboratories.
Total peace at what price?
Numerous negotiation processes are underway to put an end to the violence that has plagued the country for almost half a century. The Colombian government has promised total peace with the armed groups, notably the ELN, which has never considered leaving the negotiating table. Less structured and centralized than the FARC, the ELN is divided into various local cells, making national conciliation difficult. Since 2023, representatives of the ELN and the government have resumed a cycle of negotiations begun several months ago under the Total Peace plan initiated by Gustavo Petro since his election in 2022 (not only with the ELN, but with all armed groups, including mafia and criminal groups). Since he came to power, ceasefires have already taken place five times, and the sixth round of negotiations began in early 2024. The President used to say: "Weapons are only an instrument of death, let them rust, it's time to welcome peace" . This ambition gave rise to fears and criticism, notably that of handing the state over to the narcos. But for the left-wing President, it's not a question of giving "gifts" to all armed gangs: once a guerrilla fighter, he says he's tired of the vicious circle of eternal war. As with FARC, demobilized fighters would be offered allowances to prevent them from returning to illegal activities. But guerrillas and drug traffickers do not negotiate in the same way... Drug trafficking also seems to be at the heart of all the questions: what can the Colombian government offer to groups who have no interest in giving up the profits they make from trafficking, and what can the political project be to curb the structural causes of violence? Faced with these challenges, the current government seems more optimistic than skeptical. Total peace, an almost utopian project, is more than ever at the forefront of Colombia's priorities.
Reducing poverty and inequality
In Latin America's4th largest economy, in 2024, almost 40% of the population will be living in extreme poverty (less than $1.90 a day). Although the proportion of Colombians living in poverty fell to 39.3% in 2021, compared with 42.5% in 2020, the middle class represented only 25% of the population in 2020, compared with 30% the previous year... The shock of the pandemic has particularly affected small businesses and informal workers (56% of total employment excluding agriculture), accentuating the already high inequalities between rich and poor. Colombia is one of the ten most unequal countries in the world, and number one among the 37 OECD countries. Added to this is the depreciation of the Colombian peso against the US dollar (19% by 2022), which is driving up the cost of basic foodstuffs.
Managing migration flows
Colombia has long been a country of emigration. Over the past decade, it has also become one of the world's most welcoming countries for refugees and migrants. By 2022, there will be almost 2.4 million Venezuelans in Colombia, representing 4% of the country's population. The country, which already has to deal with the complex problem of its internal refugees - tens of thousands of Colombians displaced in their own country every year due to violence and threats from armed groups - has to deal with this massive influx of people from the neighboring country. These Venezuelan families, who often arrive after weeks on foot, survive by begging or underpaid work while waiting for visas. They often fall under the influence of mafias (trafficking, prostitution, hold-ups, etc.) and increasingly suffer from xenophobia. To enable them to work legally and benefit from healthcare, in February 2021 Colombia introduced a temporary permit offering a protective legal status to Venezuelan migrants, for ten years. Colombia is also subject to the passage of thousands of Haitian, Cuban, Asian and African migrants (55,000 people in 2021) wishing to travel to Panama and then on to the United States. They often remain stranded for weeks at the border, or in the nearby port of Necoclí, waiting to cross the dreaded Darién jungle.
Fighting corruption
Corruption is one of the country's biggest scourges. Present in the justice and police systems as well as in political life, it is estimated to account for 4% of annual GDP and mainly affects social policies, particularly in health and education. In 1995, the Samper affair shook the country. The president's election campaign had been financed by the Cali cartel. More recently, it was Odebrecht that paid $27 million in bribes for the award of public contracts in Colombia. The Brazilian construction giant is said to have financed several political parties during the 2014 campaign, including that of President Santos. In 2017, a new case: the No.1 in the fight against corruption, Luis Gustavo Moreno, was captured by his own department, over an envelope of $10,000 received by an ex-governor accused of corruption... Scandals make headlines every day. A popular consultation, a citizens' initiative provided for in the 1991 constitution, was even organized in 2018 to force parliamentarians to take more effective measures against corruption. It failed (just barely) to achieve the required quorum of voters. Politicians have "taken note" of this public expectation, without any notable change, apparently...
Reforming the police
Since 2019, this has been one of the main demands of major social mobilizations. Police forces are under the authority of the Ministry of Defense and are not trained to deal with peaceful demonstrations. In the face of what are usually artistic and festive marches (by students, mothers, the elderly, etc.), the government often sees only "vandals" and "terrorists". The anti-riot unit(Esmad) uses water cannons and tear gas, but sometimes lethal weapons too, as if confronting guerrillas or drug traffickers in the jungle. Violence begets violence, and the situation escalates, culminating in the tragedies witnessed during the Paro Nacional in 2021, with dozens dead or missing, and hundreds injured, many with irreversible eye damage. The United Nations, among others, has denounced the excessive and disproportionate use of force by the police. There is also a recurring problem of impunity for police and military personnel, who are subject to military justice rather than ordinary courts. Integral police reform, the fruit of a coordinated process of participation and discussion, is one of the measures announced by President Gustavo Petro.
Making tourism the new engine of the economy
Visitor numbers have exploded in recent years (4.5 million international tourists in 2019, up from 2.6 million in 2010), becoming the country's second-largest source of foreign currency after oil (40% of exports). The pandemic brought the sector to a halt, but tourism stakeholders remain optimistic, and a recovery in activity began in early 2022. The potential is enormous, and successive governments have clearly understood this, betting on this sector to generate jobs, investment and opportunities, at a time when oil resources are set to dry up in a few years' time, even if fracking (hydraulic fracturing) projects are regularly put on the table, to the great displeasure of environmentalists.
