The devastating Covid-19 pandemic
Recurrent natural disasters, migration, poverty, food and nutritional insecurity... These are the challenges facing Guatemala. Added to this is the Covid-19 pandemic, which has deepened inequalities, exposing vulnerable people to multiple emergencies. Already in 2020, combined with hurricanes Eta and Iota, the health crisis left 1.8 million people in need of humanitarian assistance. A number that rose to 3.8 million in December 2021, representing 25.5% of the population.
In the same year, population displacement reached historic levels: Guatemala is one of the 25 countries in the world with the highest number of displacements due to conflict or natural disasters. Finally, the pandemic has had a heavy impact on the economy, even if only in terms of tourism. In April 2021, the government estimated that Guatemala had lost 76.7 per cent of its foreign visitors since the beginning of the crisis, causing the sector to fall by 18.8 per cent and leading to thousands of layoffs. Before Covid-19, tourism accounted for 6.2 per cent of GDP.
Crime is down
Nevertheless, the pandemic will have had a "positive" impact. In 2020, due to mobility restrictions - among other things - the country, famous for its insecurity, saw its lowest level of violence since 1986, with a homicide rate of 15.4 per 100,000 inhabitants (compared with 1.3 in France). This represents a 67% drop since the peak of 46 homicides per 100,000 at the end of 2009. As a result, the metropolitan area of Guatemala City has been removed from the list of the world's most dangerous cities, compiled each year by the Citizens' Council for Public Security and Criminal Justice A.C. Since then, the "return to normal" is gradually taking place on a national scale, with 16.6 homicides per 100,000 people in 2021 and 17.3 in 2022. These figures are still a long way from the 21.5 homicides per 100,000 inhabitants in 2019.
The country's bad reputation for crime is largely due to the presence of maras - gangs. Although the majority of these gangs "only" operate in certain areas of the capital, like Marseille's northern districts for example, they stand out for their violence. The best-known, La 18 and the Mara Salvatrucha, originated in Los Angeles in the 1980s and 1990s. After their expulsion, they formed alliances with the Mexican cartels, supporting them in their cocaine trafficking operations. Today, Guatemala is a key meeting and transit point for drug traffickers. Arms smuggling, theft, kidnapping, homicide: these are the scourges that successive governments are trying to put an end to. On the other hand, trials for settling scores are subject to long delays, while impunity persists in the criminal justice system: whatever the offence, victims very rarely win their cases.
General discontent under Giammattei's tenure
Crime was a key theme in the program of former President of the Republic Alejandro Giammattei, in power until January 2024. One of his main objectives was to deal with organized crime and drug trafficking with an "iron fist", creating a National Security Council and reinstating the death penalty. Having taken office on January 14, 2020, Alejandro Giammattei had also taken a stand against previous governments, which had been plagued by corruption. Above all, his campaign was based on the "wall of opportunity" he would offer the population, i.e. the long-awaited economic development that would give inhabitants equal access to education, the job market and healthcare. All of which would help reduce insecurity.
Could this be it? Would Guatemala finally be rid of its corrupt politicians and focus on the vast economic and social terrain ahead? These were the questions on everyone's mind. Unfortunately, they were soon answered - and not in the way we'd hoped.
In early and mid-November 2020, parts of the country were ravaged by hurricanes Eta and Iota, affecting thousands of people. It was against this backdrop that, on the 21st, hundreds of demonstrators set fire to Parliament in Guatemala City, as part of protests calling for the resignation of the President. At issue: the 2021 budget, which he had just approved. Set at 99.7 billion quetzales (10.9 billion euros), it was the largest in the country's history. Such was the size of this sum that analysts and economists warned that a third of the budget would be financed by public debt.
Another problem was that, instead of funding the fight against poverty - which affects 59% of the population - and child malnutrition - which affects almost half of all children under the age of 5 - most of the funds were earmarked for infrastructure managed by contractors, while MPs' expenses were increased. In other words, the budget favors landlords and politicians at the expense of resources allocated to health and social protection, two areas particularly shaken by recent natural disasters... Habits die hard in Guatemala.
The President once again aroused the discontent of his people in July 2021, when he dismissed the Special Prosecutor against Impunity. The following day, the latter left the country and told the BBC that his investigations had revealed possible acts of corruption by people "at least close to the circle" of Alejandro Giammattei. The following week, thousands of demonstrators marched in front of the presidential palace and the Attorney General's office. An episode reminiscent of the one four years earlier, when former president Jimmy Morales declared the anti-corruption magistrate heading Guatemala's International Commission Against Impunity persona non grata. The reason: he was investigating the financing of his campaign.
Unfortunately, under the Giammattei regime, the repression of anti-corruption agents, from judges to lawyers to prosecutors, has continued to increase, with February 2022 being a particularly heavy month in terms of arrest warrants. Because of their "possible responsibility for the crime of abuse of authority", two auxiliaries of the Special Prosecutor's Office against Impunity (FECI) are concerned, as well as lawyer Eva Xiomara Sosa, ex-prosecutor of the FECI, and Leily Santizo, investigator for eleven years with the International Commission against Impunity in Guatemala (CICIG). At issue: the "possible commission of the crime of obstruction of justice". In June 2023, the government went so far as to arrest José Rubén Zamora Marroquín, a pioneer of investigative journalism in the country, for money laundering. This trial was the subject of lengthy debate, especially as the journalist's detention came five days after he made serious accusations of corruption against Alejandro Giammattei and his inner circle.
Arévalo's election as a rejection of the establishment
Faced with the major challenges of managing the health crisis, combating corruption and economic and social inequalities, and fighting crime, the people felt that there was no room for improvement, electing the progressive Bernardo Arévalo in August 2023 with 60.9% of the vote, and he took office in January 2024. His social justice and anti-corruption stance were key factors in his election, as he punished the inefficiency of the political class. But doubts about his ability to reform a country plagued by corruption are legitimate: his Semilla party won only 23 seats out of 160 in Parliament, so he will have to contend with the traditional parties. And, barely elected and before he takes office in January 2024, he is already the victim of a judicial relentlessness on the part of the Public Prosecutor's Office, which is at the same time bringing to heel those responsible for the fight against corruption. His task is immense.
