The political situation remains complex
Brazil's return to democracy in 1986 was relatively smooth, confirmed by the 1988 constitution. The right to vote was extended to all Brazilians, whether literate or not. However, while the institutions guaranteed democracy, the pursuit of the common good and the collective interest were often outweighed by vested interests, graft and nepotism. In 2003, the election to the presidency of Luiz Iniacio Da Silva of the Workers' Party seemed to have reconciled Brazilians with the democratic pact. But large-scale corruption was brought to light by the "lava jato" operation. Once again, this revealed a political system based all too often on arrangements between political groups with different or even opposing interests, in order to form a majority. These clientelistic practices suddenly seemed to remind us that nothing had really changed since the time of the "colonels" and the old republic. The exasperation of a large proportion of Brazilians in the face of a never-ending crisis, endemic violence and widespread corruption prompted a vote motivated by "degagism". Polls showed that Lula was well on the way to a new mandate. Unfortunately, the Petrobras affair rendered the former president ineligible and sent him to prison. After an indictment by Judge Sergio Moro, Lula seemed to be paying the price for an old system in which big business "financed" political parties and practices. Jair Bolsonaro, a former captain in the Brazilian army and openly nostalgic for the military regime, was easily elected in the second round against Lula's "foal", the Paulist academic Fernando Haddad. After a catastrophic term of office (550,000 deaths linked to the pandemic, and the real number could actually be much higher), violence and corruption have not abated, and poverty has exploded. The real has plummeted. With less than 25% of favorable opinions, according to the Globo newspaper, he was one of the least appreciated presidents on the planet. Once again, elected in November 2022, President Lula is carrying the hopes of an entire people and is working to restore Brazil to its rightful place on the international stage
A very socially fractured society
Brazil is one of the most unequal countries in the world. In terms of development, the South American giant has an enviable Human Development Index of 0.785, which ranks it 85th in the world. Nearly one in four Brazilians, according to the IBGE, lives on less than $80 a month, the poverty line. 6.5% of Brazilians, often blacks or mestizos, isolated women, live in conditions of extreme poverty, with less than $2 a day. This rate has been rising since 2015, under the effects of the severe economic crisis the country is going through. Under Lula's mandate, more than 10 million jobs were created and the increase in income with the increase in the minimum wage and the creation of the bolsa familia, among other measures, allowed millions of Brazilians to escape from extreme poverty. At the same time, the government implemented affirmative action policies to allow students from the most disadvantaged backgrounds to enter universities without going through the expensive vestibulares. However, despite its status as an emerging country, inequalities remain prevalent and violent geographically (between the South and the North East, between central cities and peripheries, between integrated cities and favelas, etc.) and socially between the middle and upper classes, often white, integrated into globalization, and the working classes, once again confronted with poverty. The richest 10% of the country's wealth is concentrated in 42%, while the poorest 10% have less than 1%. The school system and the public health system are in a lamentable state. Violence is rampant, with a homicide rate of 30 per 100,000 inhabitants. Young Afro-Brazilians are the main victims of violence and poverty. Like the majority of countries since the 1990s, especially those that have obtained loans from the IMF and the World Bank, Brazil is committed to liberalizing its economy. The two organizations mentioned above are forcing countries that have received loans to adopt drastic SAPs (structural adjustment policies), which reduce social and public spending by limiting investment in sectors that are not directly productive. The centre-left president FHC (Fernando Henrique Cardoso) privatised part of Brazil's "family jewels", the state-owned companies designated by their suffix "Bras", which were dear to the military in their desire to escape foreign control of strategic sectors such as energy. The disengagement of the state, close to bankruptcy, in public infrastructure and public services reinforces this social divide, whose resolution in the 2000s had raised the wild hope of an egalitarian Brazil.
The difficult path to economic emergence
Brazil is the world's 10th largest economy, but more than ever it's a colossus with feet of clay. The 2015 recession put an abrupt end to the strong growth, averaging 7%, of the 2000-2010 decade. In 2020, GDP contracted by -4.5%, but growth, albeit fragile, has resumed since the first quarter of 2022. The official unemployment rate is currently 8%, but almost half of the country's workforce is employed in the informal sector. Its economic power is based in part on its rich subsoil and agricultural production. It is a giant green exporter of raw materials. Timber, meat, coffee, citrus fruit, soya... 40% of exports are made up of agricultural products, which nevertheless "weigh" only 4% of GDP. Agricultural exports remained stable, benefiting from rising global demand and the real's deterioration on the foreign exchange market. It was above all the large farms that benefited from this global demand for raw materials. Small family farmers, on the other hand, were hard hit by the pandemic-related recession. Brazil is also a major industrial power. The former land of general mining is still a major exporter of raw materials. The country is the world's second largest exporter of iron, and one of the world's leading producers of aluminum and coal. Its oil reserves offshore and in the Amazon sedimentary basins are potentially among the five largest on the planet. But Brazil is also an emerging country, i.e. a country with a significant manufacturing sector. The industrial sector contributes 18% of GDP and employs 20% of the working population. It is becoming increasingly important in the textile and footwear sectors, as well as in aeronautics (with aircraft manufacturer Embraer among others, the world's4th largest aircraft producer, and Airbus and Latécoère have factories near Sampa). It is also a major player in pharmaceuticals, steel and chemicals. Although there hasn't been a Brazilian car brand for decades, the world's major automakers produce millions of vehicles at their Brazilian production plants located in the ABC triangle (São Paulo) and Sudeste.
Tourist opportunities
The tourism sector employs 7 million people and accounts for almost 8% of GDP. Paradoxically, and despite its undeniable international reputation, Brazil is not a major destination for international tourism, with 6.5 million foreign tourists, compared to nearly 90 million in France. The French make up the largest contingent of non-American tourists, with some 240,000. International tourism does not always correspond to Brazilian tourism. International tourists seek out seaside resorts and historic cities such as Rio de Janeiro, Salvador de Bahia, Paraty, the north-eastern coast, the colonial towns of Minas Gerais, or natural wonders such as Iguaçu Falls, the Chapada Diamantina, the Amazon, the Pantanal and the Lençóis Maranhenses. Nevertheless, Brazil's tourism sector has been able to grow thanks to a domestic market of 60 million tourists and 190 million trips. Since the Lula governments, rising incomes among the more modest have boosted domestic tourism, with the higher-income Sudeste and Sud making up the majority of flows, either to these regions or to the Nordeste or the major "spots" mentioned above. Studies often show a fairly good satisfaction index. The challenge of today and tomorrow will be to offer an "inclusive" form of tourism that will enable communities to make a decent living from tourism, while limiting the environmental impact.
