The President's challenges
Jokowi's legacy: a significant legacy. Joko Widodo's time as President of Indonesia has drawn to a close, leaving behind a decade of significant progress. Raised in the slums of Surakarta, a city in Central Java, Widodo broke with convention to become the first president from outside the circle of Indonesia's elite families. He has transcended the divides of populism and confrontational discourse, favoring instead pragmatism and stability as the hallmarks of his governance. At the beginning of 2024, before the presidential elections, his approval rating remained stable and high, exceeding 75%, a notable feat as his decade of governance drew to a close.
Widodo's legacy includes an outstanding commitment to universal healthcare. Taking over the reins of this colossal project, he invested himself with unwavering determination in its expansion, extending coverage from 56% to a remarkable record 94% of the population, within a country of 280 million inhabitants. This program, the largest of its kind in the world, represents only a tiny fraction of gross domestic product in terms of public spending on healthcare. He has also strengthened the country's connectivity by launching the ambitious "Nawacita" program, which has significantly improved transport infrastructure, including the construction and modernization of highways, airports and seaports. At the same time, he implemented economic reforms aimed at attracting foreign investment, simplifying administrative procedures and fostering a favorable business climate. In addition, his tenure has been marked by consistent efforts to consolidate diplomatic relations, notably within the ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations) region, while actively positioning Indonesia on the international stage. However, this does not imply that he will have made everything easy for the future president who takes over as head of state; for Indonesia, with its varied challenges and complex diversity, will require enlightened management and far-sighted vision to continue on the path of progress.
Subianto's arrival in power. Following the presidential, legislative and regional elections of February 14, 2024, 72-year-old Prabowo Subianto, a former general and son-in-law of Suharto, assumes the presidency of the Republic of Indonesia, taking office in October 2024. Having played an active role in the country's governance during the authoritarian New Order era from 1966 to 1998, Prabowo Subianto also held the post of Minister of Defense between 2019 and his term as President. Although he ran as a right-wing populist in the 2014 and 2019 elections with his Gerindra party, he was consistently defeated by Jokowi. Prabowo Subianto's appointment has raised concerns among the population, with many seeing him as a threat to Indonesian democracy. His controversial record, involving allegations of corruption and alleged human rights abuses during his military service, notably during Indonesia's occupation of Timor-Leste and the events of 1998, raises questions about the country's future direction. What's more, his hot-tempered nature and notable disagreements with Jokowi's ministers have done nothing to enhance his public image. The only people who seem to have been seduced by his campaign are young Indonesians, charmed by his dynamic presence on social networks and often unaware of the accusations against him, being too young to remember an authoritarian regime. They even affectionately refer to him as "cuddly grandpa". Given that the majority of voters in Indonesia are under the age of 40, we can conclude that his strategy of targeting this key demographic group has been successful. Prabowo Subianto's plan seems to be geared towards continuing the policies initiated by Joko Widodo, noting that the latter provided significant support to Prabowo Subianto throughout the election period. This political convergence between the two leaders indicates a desire to maintain a certain coherence in government orientations. Whether this continuity is achieved will largely depend on the choices made in composing his cabinet. Subianto has expressed his intention to merge the positive aspects of capitalism and socialism, increase the country's military capacity and defense budget, while advocating Indonesia's strategic neutrality through a policy of good neighborliness. His manifesto, articulated around eight major visions, reserves a special place for foreign policy, emphasizing the strengthening of defense and national security. Prabowo Subianto also aspires to make Indonesia energy-independent, pursue the project to relocate Jakarta to Borneo, and strengthen the country's industrial capacity to increase its global competitiveness. On several occasions, he has stated his intention to steer Indonesia towards a more authoritarian path.
Challenges facing the Indonesian presidency. Prabowo Subianto faces the challenge of highly fragmented legislative elections (held at the same time as the presidential election). To govern effectively in this context, the president needs to form a governing coalition involving at least three parties. However, broadening this coalition could result in a complex government, potentially inefficient due to the high number of ministries and civil servants (bearing in mind that corruption in Indonesia remains a major concern). Prabowo Subianto's links with Jokowi, whose son is Prabowo Subianto's vice-presidential running mate, could however facilitate the formation of a broader coalition.
A second major challenge facing Prabowo Subianto is managing the country's budget and current account deficits. To overcome these challenges, he must rely on foreign investment, which requires the implementation of policies favorable to the foreign investment community. It is imperative to increase labor and capital productivity, and to invest more in infrastructure in order to stimulate long-term GDP growth. The crucial question is how successful Prabowo Subianto will be in attracting this foreign investment. The national goal is to achieve these aspirations by 2045, the centenary of the country's independence. To achieve this, it will be necessary to pass appropriate legislation, undertake bureaucratic reforms, restructure the state-owned public sector, encourage domestic and foreign investment, and improve the education system. Indonesia's major strength lies in its sustainable advantages, thanks in particular to a significant demographic dividend. Indeed, the working-age population, aged between 15 and 64, continues to grow, with projections estimating that around 203 million Indonesians, representing almost 68% of the population, will be in this bracket by 2030. This vast human potential represents a considerable advantage for boosting the country's economic development in the face of these challenges.
Finally, as a power located between two major oceans - the Indian Ocean and the Pacific - and evolving into a global maritime hub, Indonesia has a responsibility to play a role in maintaining the seas as global public goods. It must actively cooperate with other nations in the region to guarantee peace in the Indo-Pacific region, combat maritime pollution and preserve the ecological balance of the marine environment. In addition to maritime safety issues, Prabowo Subianto faces other pressing environmental challenges, such as climate change, biodiversity loss and the sustainable management of natural resources. Climate change is likely to have serious consequences, such as rising sea levels, extreme weather events and changes in weather patterns.
In conclusion, Joko Widodo's legacy of a decade at the helm of the country provides a solid foundation for Indonesia's future. However, despite these advances, major challenges remain. The big question is how Prabowo Subianto intends to maintain stability while meeting the country's development needs.
Jakarta on the brink of sinking
Today, over 40% of the Indonesian capital lies below sea level. Year after year, Jakartans witness the alarming reality of their city gradually sinking, by up to 15 centimetres a year. This critical situation makes Jakarta one of the world's fastest-sinking cities. The megalopolis, which since independence in 1945 has seen its population grow from less than a million to almost 32 million today, has failed to adapt effectively to the environmental challenges that have gradually emerged. The alarming rate at which Jakarta is sinking is the result of a number of factors, including excessive groundwater extraction, rising sea levels, and the choice of locating the city on an alluvial zone subject to almost daily rainfall, totalling around 300 days a year. In its early days, Jakarta was designed by the Dutch East India Company with a vision similar to that of Amsterdam, featuring canals to regulate the water from the 13 rivers feeding the city. However, these facilities are now proving insufficient, and it is calculated that a quarter of the capital's surface area will be completely submerged by 2050. But Jakarta is not the only city in trouble. Researchers estimate that at least 115 of Indonesia's 17,000 islands could be completely inundated by 2100 as a result of global warming. Local authorities are therefore striving to implement adaptation measures to meet these challenges, including the construction of dykes, river revitalization, and more sustainable urban development projects. However, these efforts can be hampered by financial constraints, the complexity of environmental problems and the need to find long-term solutions.
In 2019, President Joko Widodo formally submitted to Parliament a plan to relocate the capital. The proposal was to build a new capital in Borneo, named Nusantara (meaning "archipelago" in ancient Javanese), to be erected on an expiring logging concession in eastern Borneo, covering 256,000 hectares in the province of East Kalimantan. The program was estimated to cost nearly $33 billion. Joko Widodo's idea was to create a green metropolis, powered by renewable energies and free from traffic jams. An ambitious goal aimed at becoming a world model in the construction of new green metropolises focused on sustainability and growth.
Clearly, relocating Jakarta and its population is a long and complex undertaking. First of all, establishing a new capital in Borneo will not solve the fundamental problem of millions of people living in a declining Jakarta. Most are not inclined to move to a remote island, and some Borneo residents do not look favorably on the arrival of the capital. Secondly, Borneo is home to some of the world's largest tracts of primary rainforest, home to some 15,000 endemic plant and animal species, putting their habitat at imminent risk. Finally, the construction of new infrastructure, the relocation of government institutions and the provision of public services in the new city require substantial financial investment. Although Joko Widodo has stated that the government will cover 20% of the estimated cost, the rest of the funding will have to come from domestic and foreign investors. So far, few companies have shown any real interest in the project. Even SoftBank, the Japanese technology conglomerate, withdrew from the project in 2022. Faced with these challenges, Indonesia's president, Prabowo Subianto, is faced with the arduous task of reassessing this ambitious, almost utopian initiative. He has to navigate carefully through environmental aspects, social considerations and economic implications, while seeking innovative solutions to ensure the success of this major project that could redefine Indonesia's geography and future.
