Towards more democracy and less corruption
Kenya's political trajectory remains full of pitfalls and surprises, proving that the country's democracy still needs to be strengthened. Corruption among members of successive governments remains a notable hindrance. Kenya's domestic politics are regularly marked by corruption scandals that tarnish the image of the political class and provoke strong popular reactions.
The election of Mwai Kibaki in 2002 was greeted by the population as the hope of a renewal, of a second independence: but this was not to be, given the political crisis of 2007-2008. Kenya took several years to recover from the ethnic violence. In 2013, Uhuru Kenyatta, a man embroiled in legal disputes with the International Criminal Court, was elected by a narrow margin over Odinga. William Ruto, his vice-president, was also indicted. On August 8, 2017, the Kenyan Supreme Court invalidated the presidential election won by the outgoing head of state, Uhuru Kenyatta. At issue were "irregularities" in the transmission of results that compromised the integrity of the ballot. A major first in Kenya and on the African continent, the ruling nevertheless attests to the independence of the Kenyan judiciary. The Court ordered a new election. Uhuru Kenyatta finally wins the election. Despite an agreement reached in March 2018 with opposition leader Raila Odinga, deep social, ethnic and political divisions remain. However, the weight of Kenyan civil society is growing with time on the front line of major debates. Some influential voices, carried by an educated elite that the authorities can no longer ignore, are undeniably pulling the country upwards.
A strategic position in East Africa
The situation in Somalia, which has been in crisis since 1991, remains a major concern for Kenya. In 2011, fearing incursions into its territory by the Islamist militia Al-Shebab, Kenya intervened in Somalia and created a buffer zone along the border. Since 2012, Kenyan forces have been part of the African Union mission in Somalia (AMISOM). The country has suffered several major attacks (the Westgate shopping mall in 2013, Garissa University in 2015, the Dusit D2 complex in 2019, the American-Kenyan base at Camp Simba in 2020...) and threats of attacks are recurrent.
Kenya is home to nearly 500,000 refugees, mainly from South Sudan and Somalia, on the Kakuma and Dadaab sites. Since 2016, Nairobi has called for the closure of these two huge refugee camps, citing security reasons. Diplomatic relations between Kenya and Somalia also remain strained, notably due to a dispute over the delineation of their maritime border. Nairobi and Mogadishu dispute a 100,000 km2 area rich in fish and hydrocarbons. The dispute was settled in 2021 by the International Court of Justice (ICJ) in favor of Somalia.
A founding member of the East African Community (EAC) with Tanzania and Uganda, Kenya also plays a major role in the development of the region (customs union, common market, monetary union project, tripartite free-trade zone). Kenya is also a member of IGAD (Intergovernmental Authority on Development), which brings together the seven countries of the Horn of Africa, the Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa (COMESA) and the Southern African Development Community (SADC).
Economic boom, yes, but..
Kenya is one of the five largest economies in sub-Saharan Africa and a regional trade hub. But despite the economic boom of the last fifteen years, which has fostered the emergence of a middle class, the country remains highly unequal. The poverty rate is high and, according to the UN, between 3 and 3.5 million people face serious food insecurity. And while notable efforts have been made to improve security on Kenyan soil, and infrastructure and the service sector have boomed in recent years, spending targets for health and education are still far from being met. As for public finances, despite phases of consolidation, they are now in the red.
Between 2014 and 2020, Kenya benefited from the European Development Fund to the tune of 435 million euros, for three sectors (food security, sustainable infrastructure, governance and rule of law), but public debt has continued to rise, reaching a critical threshold in 2020 with the Covid-19 pandemic, which has only exacerbated this trend. Against this backdrop, Kenya received substantial cyclical support from the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund (IMF), which in 2021 granted it a new loan of $2.30 billion. Kenyans, worried that their country is once again in debt, see this as mismanagement of funds. President Ruto's plan to reform the Finance Act in 2023 does not help matters. The result is new anti-government tensions, led by youth protests over the lack of jobs and rising cost of living.
A diversified economy
Kenya has succeeded in developing its industry, export agriculture and tourism, and thanks to its geographical position, the country has become a regional trade center. And even if, historically, the country has depended essentially on four sources of foreign currency: coffee, tea, tourism (and... international aid), the multiplicity of sectors works and these can compensate for each other in times of crisis.
Kenya is first and foremost a service economy. By combining digital technologies and services, Kenya has shown itself to be particularly innovative. This is notably the case with its M-Pesa mobile payment system, launched in 2007 and adopted around the world, or M-Akiba, a mobile Treasury bond subscription platform inaugurated in March 2017. With services accounting for over 50% of its business, Kenya's level of development in this sector makes it a regional hub.
Kenya particularly stands out in the digital sector. Funds are pouring in to support the country's start-ups through incubators. For six months, a year or two, young entrepreneurs receive funding to develop their ideas. Born in 2008 during the violence of the presidential elections, the online geolocation platform Ushahidi is a fine example of this boom, since it has become a worldwide reference. Things are so busy that the Kenyan government is building Konza Technology City (now Konza Technopolis), a 2,000-hectare high-tech park some 60 km from Nairobi, in the middle of the savannah. Around 50,000 jobs are expected to be created on completion in 2030.
The "Vision 2030" program
Launched in 2008, the "Vision 2030" program aims to transform Kenya "into a newly industrialized middle-income country that provides its citizens with a high standard of living in a clean and secure environment". It prioritizes infrastructure development, and has resulted in a near doubling of annual growth rates since the early 2010s. Despite this, the country remains highly unequal, with a high poverty rate and 2.6 million people still in need of food assistance. In the fields of health and education, targets are far from being met, particularly in terms of vocational training, while the economy suffers from a shortage of technical manpower.
In the field of infrastructure, the progress made is indisputable. The development of the energy sector is noteworthy, thanks in particular to the opening up to private investors, and Kenya can boast an electricity mix that is 80% renewable. The same is true of access to water, which is progressing but has not yet become widespread. As for the transport sector, although the rehabilitation of the rail link between Mombasa and Nairobi - the President's major project - has been successfully completed (albeit at the cost of massive indebtedness to China), no Kenyan city yet has a mass urban transport system, and the sector remains dominated by informal minibuses, known as "matatus".
Environmental issues
Kenya is a leading example of nature conservation, with a real commitment to environmental protection. The country is lucid about the consequences of climate change, when repeated droughts over the years seriously threaten the survival of several million inhabitants. To this end, the government has committed to restoring 500,000 hectares of grazing land in eleven arid counties, in order to limit the future displacement of populations, preserve their livelihoods and the biodiversity of ecosystems. The survival of wild animals also depends on this, as they too struggle for access to water. The other issue is that of human infrastructures, which are increasingly interfering with animal movements. The new electrified railroad line from Mombasa to Nairobi, which passes through Nairobi National Park, East Africa's oldest park (1946), and Tsavo National Park, has already sparked controversy and led to changes in the behavior of animals living in these protected natural areas. Major road infrastructure projects also planned along this route will have dramatic consequences if nothing is done - or done badly - to preserve this natural heritage.
