The weight of 2010
After the massacres in the Ferghana Valley in 2010 following Bakiyev's attempt to retain power from which he had been ousted by the streets, the country must, above all, reconcile the two clans. This is what Roza Otunbaieva, a former diplomat and emblematic figure of the Tulip Revolution, is striving to achieve when she is appointed by opposition leaders to lead the country after Bakiyev's ouster. She set about passing by referendum a new constitution reducing the powers of the President of the Republic in favor of those of Parliament. After more than a year in power, she handed over to her successor, Almazbek Atambaev, at the end of 2011. Reforms then began in this small, battered country, still the poorest in Central Asia, where, for the first time since independence, a president, who was also openly "democratic", came to power peacefully.
Growing difficulties
Atambaev's term of office was marked by economic difficulties, as Kyrgyzstan was unable to do without Moscow's tutelage and international aid. Seeking to open up as much as possible to tourism, with the aim of bringing foreign currency into the country, Kyrgyzstan abolished visas for some sixty nationalities, mainly from Europe, and eased the conditions for entering and staying in the country. This "laxity" at the borders has consequences: these measures have been blamed for facilitating the entry of Uyghur terrorists into the country, as witnessed by the attack on the Chinese embassy in Bishkek in August 2016. At the same time, Kyrgyzstan is the only Central Asian republic where radical Islam seems to be making a strong comeback, particularly in the south, in the Ferghana Valley, to such an extent that the government launched a massive poster campaign in 2016 in an attempt to alert people to the dangers of radicalization through religion. Economic crisis, fear at the borders, radicalization of society: all factors that pushed Atambaev in 2016 to take a step backwards and amend the Constitution once again to give more weight to the executive. A new presidential drift leading, as always, to an alternation of power. However, Atambaev's Prime Minister, Sooronbay Jeenbekov, managed to succeed his president peacefully, through the ballot box, and with the organization of a second round of voting, as had never happened before in the former USSR republics of Central Asia. The improvement was short-lived, however, as the parties supporting Sooronbay Jeenbekov were accused of electoral fraud at the end of 2020, sparking new tensions and demonstrations that led to the president's resignation. He was succeeded by Prime Minister Sadir Japarov, who won nearly 80% of the vote in the 2021 presidential election. A new constitution was passed, further strengthening presidential power.
An economy rooted in the primary sector
After independence, under the presidency of Azkar Akaev, the Kyrgyz government quickly embarked on reforms aimed at liberalizing and opening up its economy: Kyrgyzstan was the first of the former Soviet republics to join the WTO. The country experienced a fairly severe economic recession between 1991 and 1995, just after independence, but reforms enabled it to return rapidly to growth, which approached 10% in the late 2000s. Nevertheless, the crisis, which hit the country and its main trading partners hard, caused the Kyrgyz economy to stumble, and in 2013 it even posted a negative growth rate.
Less well endowed with natural resources than most of its Central Asian neighbors, despite the presence on its territory of the Kumtor gold mine, one of the world's largest, Kyrgyzstan remains characterized by an essentially rural and partly nomadic economy, and is struggling to take off economically. Its industrial structure remains very limited. Its only exportable and profitable resource is electricity, the vast majority of which is generated by the hydroelectric dams springing up like mushrooms on all the country's rivers. Kyrgyzstan plays the game of swapping electricity for gas with its Uzbek neighbor, but the partners are not always able to reach an agreement, which leads to numerous heating cuts in Kyrgyzstan..
An uncertain future
With a gross domestic product of just over $11.5 billion in 2022, Kyrgyzstan is the second-poorest country in the CIS after neighboring Tajikistan, with almost 40% of its population living below the poverty line. The country's landlocked position and widespread corruption at all levels, both political and industrial, make foreign investment difficult. In addition, the country remains seriously affected by the crisis in the West, but especially in Russia and China, its main suppliers and customers. The closure of several shops and markets in Moscow has led to a significant drop in economic activity in Bishkek's "economic lung", the large Dordoy bazaar, which supplies textiles and other products to many markets in Russia and China. After a little more than 30 years of independence, the new economic situation is struggling to take shape.
A difficult neighbourhood
It's not just the giants of Russia and China that are having an impact on Kyrgyz political and economic news. More direct neighbors Uzbekistan and Tajikistan are also posing problems. For Uzbekistan, it's mainly a question of securing water supplies to maintain its large cultivated and irrigated areas. And in recent years, Uzbekistan has taken a very dim view of the proliferation of dams in the Kyrgyz and Tajik water towers, fuelling tensions that still have a strong communal echo, particularly in the Ferghana Valley. Tensions are also high with Tajikistan. Throughout 2019, and again in 2021 and 2022, border incidents have taken place in the Batken region, resulting in several deaths and injuries and the displacement of 135,000 people. These incidents are the result of disagreements over border demarcation: a veritable Pandora's box in Central Asia. The two countries share almost 1,000 km of border, only half of which is clearly demarcated. At the end of 2022, a peace agreement was signed between the two countries, which seems to be holding firm for the time being.
