The heavy legacy of President Karimov
Following independence, the "Karimov clan" created a family oligarchy that came to control all aspects of Uzbekistan's economy and finances, appropriating raw materials and resources, and prohibiting any form of liberalism or development of personal initiative. In this sense, Uzbekistan, like Turkmenistan today, has shown itself to be a good pupil of the Soviet legacy, bringing an entire society under control, banning all dissent and monopolizing all wealth. For a long time, the economy was based on cotton monoculture, in a system where prices were always fixed by the state, as in the Brezhnev era, before the harvest. The "Uzbek way" soon proved to be an abject failure, leading only to the reinforcement of a dictatorship that was increasingly suffocating the country.
A greater openness to the world
Under President Mirziyoyev, Uzbekistan's economic model is now more in line with what Kazakhstan has been doing since the late 1990s: exploiting national resources through joint ventures, partnering international players with know-how and technical expertise in the sectors concerned. In this respect, Uzbekistan is rather well supplied, with large deposits of gas (the country's estimated reserves are 3 million cubic meters), gold and uranium, as well as zinc, silver and copper.
At the same time as the economy was opening up, the country was modernizing, finally breaking away from its cotton monoculture. Fields of wheat, sunflowers and corn, less water-hungry and less polluting for the soil, are springing up everywhere.
A growing service sector
In addition to the modernization of the primary and secondary sectors, there has also been a boom in the tertiary sector, whose development had previously been hampered by a lack of freedom and corruption. Today, this development is particularly evident in the tourism sector, where private players are multiplying rapidly: hotels, travel agencies, car rental companies... But in reality, it concerns all sectors of society.
High stakes
Despite increased and promising contacts with the West in the energy and tourism sectors, Uzbekistan needs time to make the necessary economic transition in addition to the political and social changes. It is estimated that, until 2016, 5% of Uzbeks accounted for 95% of the country's wealth. It will take time for a better distribution of wealth to be observed and for a middle class to emerge. The upper social strata are still favored, as demonstrated by the Tashkent City project, a high-end city reserved for the wealthiest segments of the population. Similar programs can be seen at the entrances to Bukhara and Khiva, with the appearance of the first steel towers.
Construction of all kinds
Building is and will remain the driving force behind development. Everywhere, we're destroying in order to rebuild, often with no regard for heritage or ecology. Housing estates are springing up everywhere, and office blocks are springing up in new urban centers. To populate all these living and working spaces, the government is supporting real estate lending, and banks are being asked to provide loans and credit.
The rise in Chinese investment, as part of the pharaonic "New Silk Roads" project, raises other issues. The initiatives proposed by Beijing since 2013, including investments in transport (the tunnel for the high-speed train from Tashkent to the Ferghana Valley is the best illustration of this), are upsetting the economic balance in the region, while bringing promises of development that are still difficult to assess. Like other countries on the new Silk Roads, Uzbekistan welcomes Chinese investment, but remains wary of its political consequences. The risk of over-dependence is real, and the link with Russia is often invoked to balance relations with outside powers.
What about tourists?
This wind of change has direct consequences for travelers to Uzbekistan. For example, a visa is no longer required. Another new feature is the acquisition of a local SIM card: you can communicate easily and freely during your trip. 4G and broadband are not necessarily available everywhere, but it's a good first step!
The country is modernizing its roads, trains, administrative buildings, economy and agriculture... After a long period of stagnation under Karimov's leaden umbrella, it is now developing in all directions. The president, his government and the whole of Uzbek society are eager for change.
In 2020, Uzbekistan, like the rest of the world, experienced a pandemic-related downturn. Containment, the disappearance of the tourism windfall and the lack of state aid had a severe impact on the tourism sector. Since 2022, however, visitor figures show renewed interest on the part of travellers.
