Challenges on all fronts
Social change, economic transition, environmental catastrophe, political positioning, international openness... when Kazakhstan declared its independence, there was no shortage of issues at stake. But the country has one major advantage: its hydrocarbon and uranium reserves, which will give it exceptional economic power in the region. Kazakhstan's subsoil is estimated to contain 2% of the world's reserves, thanks in particular to the Kashagan deposit, discovered in the 1990s and brought on stream in 2016. Despite technical difficulties, as the field lies 5,000 meters below the seabed of the Caspian Sea, almost 500,000 barrels are produced every day, in addition to the one million barrels produced at the historic Tengiz field. Eventually, Kazakhstan hopes to produce 1.2 million barrels a day at Kashagan! Petrodollars don't buy happiness (especially not for the environment), but in less than 20 years the country has managed to move away from a planned economy to a market economy (privatization of companies, liberalization of trade and certain services, attraction of foreign companies...).
The impossible political transition
Unfortunately, the financial windfall from hydrocarbons will not be used for the country's balanced development. A good part of the revenue is being swallowed up by the construction of the new capital, Astana, and, generally speaking, the standard of living, while more enviable than in the rest of Central Asia, is not keeping pace with the country's growth. On the contrary, successive devaluations, linked to the weakness of the banking system, encroach ever further on purchasing power. And despite the many steps taken to liberalize the economy, the State's stranglehold on the entire production apparatus and its permanent price controls limit real social progress in terms of wages, social protection and pensions. Against this backdrop, Nursultan Nazarbayev maintains his grip on power, mainly by manipulating or rewriting the Constitution, which enables him to serve five successive terms, or by force, as when Moscow sends in its troops to help him quell demonstrations. Power is ultra-centralized, in the hands of Nazarbaev, who alone will decide the country's destiny for 30 years, until 2019. The new team has yet to prove its ability to free itself from the "father of the nation".
The difficult opening to tourism
Unlike its Uzbek and Kyrgyz neighbors, Kazakhstan has not benefited from strong tourism revenues, which totaled just under $1.5 billion before the pandemic, when tourists were mainly Russians. Western weight in tourism is still very low, despite the publicity offered by the success of the Astana cycling team with Denis Vinokurov in the 2010s or by Expo 2017 held in the Kazakh capital. Five years later, Almaty lost out to Beijing in its bid to host the 2022 Winter Olympics, despite major renovation work at the Shymbulak ski resort. The main obstacle to the development of tourism remains the lack of infrastructure outside the major cities. This is undoubtedly due to the latent lack of a "sub-ministry" budget: tourism is still dependent on the Ministry of Industry and New Technologies. The fact that it is now easier for visitors to get to the Altai Mountains could change all that in the years to come, by attracting a public of hikers eager to explore new horizons.
