A land of contrasts between demographic aging and rural traditions
With a low birth rate, a fertility rate of 1.44 children per woman (source: World Population Review), and an average life expectancy of 76 years for men and 83 years for women, Poland is an aging country. Its population has been slowly decreasing for several years and its annual growth rate was negative in 2021, with a value of -0.11%. The territory has several major cities, starting with Warsaw (the capital), Kraków, Łódź, Wrocław and Poznań. The population density in Poland was 123 inhabitants/km2 in 2020 (source: World Bank). Despite the development of large cities, a significant share of Poles are settled in rural areas or small towns of the country. The Polish population has a very strong link with the land and rural life. For this reason, agriculture has always been a significant activity, for which the country is recognized on a European and global scale. As a result, many families have been settled in the countryside for centuries. The aging of the population and the waves of expulsions in the east of the country after the Second World War are closely linked to the strong presence of Poles in remote areas. Many pensioners, often from peasant families or families that were forced to flee their homes, are still living in their small towns or villages. The lower cost of living than in the big cities is also one of the reasons for the high concentration of the population in rural areas.
An aging population: development issues and consequences for the country
Poland's aging population and declining birth rate are having a short- and long-term impact on the country's available workforce. The number of potential workers is shrinking, which in turn means fewer skilled workers in certain sectors. The country has a number of options for countering this phenomenon, one of which is to further encourage the participation of women in the labor market. The percentage of working women in Poland is far from alarming (45.8% in 2022, according to Insee). However, their numbers are slightly lower than in France, where 49% of women were employed in 2022 (source: Insee).
The promotion of immigration to attract new foreign workers is another of the solutions exploited by the country. Immigration is a godsend for Poland, which badly needs to make up for the loss of its workforce. However, the policies put in place are stagnating due to a lack of methods, money or even will... This stagnation is felt even though, after having been a multicultural country in 1939, where minorities represented around 30% of the population, Poland is now 97% ethnically homogeneous. If it succeeds in its immigration policy, it's a safe bet that the country will face a major challenge: relearning how to function in a multicultural society.
Poland has a rich history of migration, and the reasons behind these population flows are diverse. After the Second World War, borders shifted and the country's economic instability led to major waves of migration. During this period, Poland mainly became a land of emigration. This was followed by unprecedented waves of departures, particularly when Poland joined the European Union in 2004. From then until 2007, no less than two million Poles left the country, mainly for Great Britain and Ireland. In Poland, these departures are accepted with fatalism and resignation.
Apart from immigration issues, demographic ageing is putting a strain on the Polish healthcare system and social services, which are facing increased demand in terms of care and support for the elderly. The challenge for the country is to absorb the growing demand, to ensure that care is available and accessible to everyone. The implementation of public health policies to prevent the risk of diseases associated with old age is of paramount importance. With the decline in births, education is also affected by demographic changes in the country. The number of students attending school is falling, affecting the quality of educational programs. Encouraging the birth rate and stimulating education through preventive campaigns is a remedy for Poland. By analyzing its demographics and, de facto, adapting its domestic policies, the country is giving itself the opportunity to meet the new challenges linked to its population in the coming years and thus revitalize itself. The good news is that, after fluctuating demographic episodes, Poland has stabilized since the 1990s, with a population approaching 38 million. In 2023, the 39 million mark has even been passed (source: World Bank).
