The legacy of Sun Yat-sen
When Chiang Kai-shek landed in Taiwan in 1949, his Kouo-Min-Tang party represented the government of the Republic of China (ROC) in exile, in opposition to the communist rule of the People's Republic of China (PRC). This geopolitical situation is still in force today, and Taiwan's current policy can only be understood through this antagonism. The constitutional structure of the Taiwanese state has its origins in the model of the "Three Principles of the People", as defined by the father of the Republic of China, Sun Yatsen. At the beginning of the 20th century, the Chinese Empire was in chaos, dominated by rebellious warlords, widespread corruption in the Qing dynasty and the interests of the great colonial powers of the day - Japan, France and Great Britain. Sun Yat-sen was one of the intellectual movements seeking to revive Chinese power from the ashes. In 1911, with Sun Yat-sen at the head of the movement, the Qing dynasty was overthrown and the Republic of China proclaimed. The state's course of action was thus based on these "three principles":
minzu, nationalism or people's government, a pan-ethnic vision that should unite all Chinese peoples (Han, Mongols, Manchus, Tibetans, Uyghurs, etc.).
minquan, democracy or government by the people, represented by the National Assembly.
minsheng, the common good or government for the people, akin to the creation of a welfare state to ensure good living conditions.
The current constitution of the Republic of China, put in place when martial law was lifted and the KMT took control of Taiwanese politics in 1987, is inspired by Sun Yat-sen's vision of the state. In short, power is divided into two blocs. On the one hand, the Office of the President, Head of State, which appoints the Prime Minister and steers Taiwan's policy, though without veto power over Parliament. On the other hand, the five Yuan, which form the heart of the Taiwanese government and represent the division of powers advocated by Sun Yat-sen. Firstly, the Executive Yuan, which corresponds to the Prime Minister's government and encompasses the country's various ministries. As the government does not require parliamentary approval, executive power is concentrated mainly in the hands of the President, while his ministers are responsible for implementing his decisions. Then there's the Legislative Yuan, which represents legislative power through Taiwan's Parliament, elected by universal suffrage every four years. Of the 113 seats, 73 are allocated by direct universal suffrage, 34 by proportional representation and 6 are reserved for the indigenous population. The Legislative Yuan is associated with the Control Yuan, an investigative body that audits public accounts and can dismiss administrative officials. These members are appointed by the President and approved by the Legislative Yuan. Then there's the Judicial Yuan, the state's highest court, in charge of the judiciary, whose members are appointed by the president and approved by parliament.
Various courts of justice depend on the Yuan: the Supreme Court, the Constitutional Court, etc. Finally, the Examining Yuan is responsible for examining the professional qualifications of civil servants.
The spectre of Beijing
After martial law was lifted in 1987, it took nine years before a presidential election was held by universal suffrage. This first election in 1996 saw Lee Teng-hui of the KMT claim victory. Although the KMT was associated with Chiang Kai-shek's military dictatorship, the party ruled the country until 2000, when Cheng Shui-bian of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) came to power for the first time in the ROC. He remained in power until 2008, but heavy corruption charges against him allowed the KMT to regain power from 2008 to 2016. In 2016, the DPP won the presidential elections and Tsai Ing-wen became Taiwan's first female president.
In January 2020, Tsai Ing-wen, the outgoing president and candidate of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), was re-elected with over 57% of the vote. Her victory was interpreted as a rejection of Chinese pressure for cross-strait rapprochement. The DPP also retained its majority in the Legislative Yuan, consolidating Tsai's power. The emergence of the Taiwan People's Party (TPP), founded by Ko Wen-je in 2019, marked a change in the political landscape, offering an alternative to the two dominant parties, the DPP and the Kuomintang (KMT).
Relations between Taiwan and China have deteriorated, with Beijing stepping up its military activities around the island, including frequent incursions into Taiwan's Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ). Taiwan has become a focal point for tensions between the United States and China, particularly after visits by high-ranking American officials, including Nancy Pelosi in August 2022. These visits exacerbated tensions in the Taiwan Strait.
Taiwan has been the target of disinformation campaigns, mainly orchestrated by China, aimed at undermining public confidence in the Taiwanese government and its relations with the United States. Despite these efforts, public opinion in Taiwan remains largely in favor of maintaining the status quo, with a strong desire to preserve the island's autonomy while avoiding any major conflict with China.
On January 13, 2024, 19 million Taiwanese voted in a dual presidential and legislative election. The poll was held under increased military pressure from China, with Beijing presenting the elections as a choice between peace and war. Despite this, turnout reached 71.8%, and incumbent Vice-President Lai Ching-te of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) won the presidency with 40.05% of the vote. He beat Hou You-yi of the Nationalist Party (KMT) and Ko Wen-je of the Taiwan People's Party (TPP). For the first time in Taiwanese history, the same party won the presidential election three times in a row. However, the DPP saw its support dwindle compared to previous elections and lost its absolute majority in the Legislative Yuan, where the KMT is now the leading party.
The parliamentary elections saw the DPP lose 10 seats, the KMT gain 11, and the TPP play a crucial role as the linchpin for parliamentary alliances. On February1, 2024, the TPP abstained from voting in the election for Chairman of the Legislative Yuan, allowing the KMT's Han Kuo-yu to win the post.
Lai Ching-te, who took office on May 20, 2024, is expected to favor maintaining the status quo rather than formal independence for Taiwan. In March 2023, Taiwan announced that it would not open fire first if Chinese forces crossed the 24-nautical-mile limit, but tensions remain high with recent Chinese military incursions around the island.
An economic transition
The dividing line between the country's two main political forces therefore lies in their relationship with mainland China. When it comes to economic policy, however, the two parties agree on many points, and both want to turn Taiwan into a hub for Asian finance and high-tech. A veritable capitalist paradise, Taiwan has succeeded in becoming Asia's fourth-largest economy in the space of thirty years. For a long time, low labor costs combined with low value-added industrial production (mainly textiles) were the driving force behind economic growth. However, China's opening up to the world market is competing with Taiwanese industry, and the island is attracting fewer foreign investors. During the 90s, Taiwanese industry underwent conversion, and thanks to agreements negotiated between the PRC and the ROC during this decade, the production of low-cost products partly moved to China. Taiwan is investing heavily in high-tech, particularly electronics: 60% of the world's flat screens and motherboards are produced here. The biggest Taiwanese companies are true leaders in their field: Acer, Asus or Quanta (IT), Evergreen (shipping), TSMC (semiconductors) or even HTC (smartphone), acquired by Google in 2018. This economic stability has enabled the country to become the 15th largest exporter in the world, with the 22nd highest GDP in the world and the 17th highest GDP per capita (US$50,000 per year in 2017). Thanks to a skilled and specialized workforce, the unemployment rate does not exceed 4%. That said, Taiwan's economy remains highly dependent on the dollar for its hydrocarbon imports, and the slightest slowdown in world trade can have a lasting impact. In 2009, the global financial crisis caused the country to lose 1.48% of its GDP. The service economy (62% of GDP) is supported by a stable banking system, and Taipei remains one of Asia's financial powerhouses. Tourism presents many opportunities for Taiwan, with around 11 million foreign visitors in 2019.
Since 2019, tourism in Taiwan has gone through ups and downs, influenced by various factors, including the COVID-19 pandemic and geopolitical tensions.
The main outbound markets were mainland China, Japan, South Korea and Southeast Asian countries.
The Covid-19 pandemic brought this growth to an abrupt halt. In 2020, Taiwan closed its borders to most international travellers, leading to a drastic drop in visitor numbers. The tourism sector, which represents a significant part of the Taiwanese economy, suffered heavy losses. However, Taiwan managed to contain the virus effectively for much of 2020, encouraging domestic tourism. The government set up campaigns to promote domestic travel, offering subsidies and discounts to stimulate the sector.
From 2022, with the gradual easing of restrictions, Taiwan began to reopen its borders to international tourists. This period was marked by initiatives to attract returning tourists, with a particular focus on health measures and traveler safety.
At the same time, growing tensions with China also had an impact on tourism. The number of Chinese tourists has fallen sharply, replaced in part by an increase in visitors from other regions, notably Europe and the USA, attracted by Taiwan's image as a vibrant democracy in Asia.
In April 2024, the numerous earthquakes in the Hualien region, destroying numerous infrastructures, once again affected Taiwan's tourism sector. According to the Ministry of Tourism, it will take many years to rebuild the damaged roads and buildings destroyed by the earthquakes.
