Public Health
Thanks to Ecuadorians' great prudence and respect for health regulations, the country was one of the first to reopen its doors to tourism in 2021, and is now virtually out of this complicated episode. Restructuring of the healthcare system is underway, and will take time, especially as Guillermo Lasso's resignation in May 2023 brought the country to a virtual standstill from a legislative point of view. The public hospital service is sorely lacking in resources, and private clinics are inaccessible to the vast majority of the population. But political uncertainty is clearly not conducive to a long-term health policy, especially as the current mandate will only last 18 months.
Economy
The economy is undoubtedly another of the major challenges facing Daniel Noboa and his next successor, given Ecuador's gigantic national debt and lack of liquidity. The difficult economic situation Moreno said he inherited in 2017 has worsened since 2019 due to the lack of liquidity, and collapsed in 2020 with a 7.8% drop in GDP due to the pandemic, resulting in job losses and increased poverty. Since then, however, recovery has begun, albeit unevenly, leaving behind, as is often the case, those most affected by the crisis, particularly the indigenous people of the Sierra and Amazon regions. This represents a major risk for the government, since in Ecuador, the indigenous people are always ready to paralyze the country if they feel they are being left behind, as has often been the case in the past. With oil still the country's main resource, the energy transition will also be a major undertaking, and the development of other sources of revenue for the country essential. Fortunately, the country is a major exporter of fruit and shrimps, sectors with a promising future and growing rapidly.
Migration and its multi-dimensionality
Despite growing insecurity, the relatively favorable economic climate is helping to reverse the migratory flow: many emigrants are returning home. Successive presidents, from Rafaël Correa to Guillermo Lasso, have encouraged their nationals to return home (most of them are in Spain) and thus contribute to the country's development. It is estimated that around 70% of the 400,000 Ecuadorians who were in Spain before 2018, expressed a desire to return; the economic crisis in Europe was a major factor in this. Various recent governments have sought to bring in qualified profiles, particularly engineers and scientists, with the aim of developing research. At the same time, however, the migration of over six million Venezuelans to the Andean sub-region as a result of the severe economic crisis in neighboring Venezuela is putting the entire region in difficulty. It's the biggest humanitarian crisis Latin America has ever seen. Millions of people are taking to the roads in search of a better life for themselves and their children, but this is not making things any easier for local governments, which are already struggling to curb unemployment among their citizens. Tensions between Ecuadorians and migrants from Venezuela are often palpable, even though many Venezuelans are rapidly integrating into Ecuadorian society, as thousands of Ecuadorians did in Venezuela in the past.
Illegal mining
With Ecuador's huge natural resources (gold, silver, lead, zinc, copper and precious stones, not to mention oil), prospectors' appetites are great, and illegal mines abound. Unfortunately, mining operations such as the search for gold in the ríos have catastrophic consequences for the environment. The new government made it clear as soon as it took office that this issue would be a priority for it. At the same time, official oil extraction is a real economic and social challenge. Indeed, Ecuador's largest oil fields are located in areas of the country where nature is at its most fragile, such as Parque nacional Yasuni. Hundreds of rivers are now seriously polluted, and the rate of deforestation has been rising steadily since the last elections. Fortunately, the Ecuadorian people voted in a referendum in August 2023 against the exploitation of the Yasuni's subsoil, which now seems to be protected from this gangrene. Let's hope it lasts.
The ecological transition
In June 2021, Guillermo Lasso gave the starting signal for the ecological transition race by allocating part of a ministry to it. The Ministry of the Environment and Water also became the Ministry of Ecological Transition, an essential theme for the preservation of the planet. Although subtle, this change shows the interest shown by the new institutions in this theme. Political will in this direction is not new: the 2008 constitution already incorporated the concept of Sumak Kawsay, the good life, which implies the protection of Mother Earth, but in reality, progress has been too slow. A 2018 INEC study shows that only 1/4 of Ecuadorian companies operate with an environmental permit, and barely 0.7% of employees in the companies surveyed are dedicated to tasks involving environmental protection. Having passed legislation, the state must now encourage the private sector and force the public sector into action. The new president, Daniel Noboa, has been committed to this since his election in October 2023, but he will have just 18 months to put in place structures that are likely to be turned upside down again in 2025, after the next elections.
When it comes to protecting nature, which is essential to any intelligent ecological transition process, Ecuador, which enjoys exceptional biodiversity, and despite the inclusion in its constitution of the concept of the public interest in protecting nature and biodiversity, is regularly sanctioned or singled out by the relevant international institutions. The penalties provided for by law are probably too weak to have any impact on animal traffickers, for example, who are still numerous in the country, as demonstrated by the regular seizures made at the borders.
