Demographics
Like all the Balkan countries, from Greece to Slovenia, North Macedonia is experiencing a significant decline in population.
Population decline. In 2021, the country officially had 1,836,713 inhabitants. After a steady increase during the twentieth century, until it exceeded the 2 million mark in 2001, the population has been in steep decline since the new millennium. This phenomenon affects the whole of the Balkans with, for example, a spectacular fall of 27% in Bulgaria between 1982 and 2022. While the authorities in Skopje have tried to hide the extent of the decline in northern Macedonia, the 2021 census confirmed a 10% decline in 20 years. However, some demographers believe that the latest official figures are misleading, since they include people living abroad: the actual population living in North Macedonia could be between 1.5 and 1.8 million.
Causes. The uncertain political and economic context has played a major role in the demographics. Since independence in 1991, the country has been shaken by the effects of the Kosovo war (1998-1999) and then by a civil war in 2001. Subsequently, during Nikola Gruevski's long tenure as Prime Minister (2006-2016), the country experienced authoritarian drift, rising corruption and high tensions that blocked the functioning of institutions and slowed foreign investment. All of this has resulted in a decline in the birth rate, an increase in emigration and an aging population. The average wage has risen only slightly since 1991. It now stands at just over €500 per month.
Emigration and rural exodus. An estimated 600,000 people left Northern Macedonia between 1991 and 2021. At the same time, the city of Skopje has attracted nearly 100,000 new inhabitants. This means that outside the capital, the country has lost about 50 per cent of its population. Some regions are becoming desolate and many villages are completely empty or have only elderly inhabitants. Even the country's second largest city, Bitola, has lost 10,000 people since 1991. Only Tetovo has seen an increase since independence. But the latter is mostly populated by Albanians, who have a higher birth rate than the national average.
A small ray of hope. The birth rate, which had fallen to less than two children per woman in 1996, has continued to fall, reaching 1.31 in 2020. However, as of 2021, the birth rate is on the rise again. It was 1.67 children per woman in 2022. This is the only positive sign at the demographic level. It is difficult to understand this sudden rise. But it coincides with a certain calm in political life, a decrease in tensions between communities, a relative decline in the unemployment rate and a normalization of relations with Greece. This last point is important, because since 2018, the country is finally recognized internationally as "Northern Macedonia."
The two main population groups
The 2021 census will provide a good overview of the distribution of different population groups for the first time. Previously, Albanians systematically boycotted the census to show their dissatisfaction with the authorities.
Macedonians. This term refers to both the majority population group and all citizens of the country, who are "Macedonian" citizens. In terms of the "ethnic" group, Macedonians make up 58.4% of the country's population, or just over one million people. They are Macedonian-speaking Southern Slavs with a Macedonian Orthodox Christian religion/culture. They are primarily descendants of the Bulgarians who settled in the southeastern Balkans between the 7th and 10th centuries. They share their genetic heritage mainly with the present-day Bulgarians, but also with the Serbs and, to a lesser extent, with the Greeks, Albanians, Romanians and Gagauzes of Moldavia and Ukraine. The "Macedonian" identity appeared late. At the beginning of the 20th century, the ancestors of the Macedonians still defined themselves as "Bulgarians of Macedonia" and spoke Bulgarian. It was between 1918 and 1991, when the territory of present-day North Macedonia was under Serbian and Yugoslav control, that a differentiation with the Bulgarians appeared. The subject is sensitive. Thus, even today, Bulgaria does not really recognize the existence of the "Macedonian" people, its culture and its language. Finally, there are about one million Macedonians outside the country, mainly in Germany, Switzerland and Austria (185,000), North America (150,000) and Australia (110,000). In the Balkans, Macedonians are estimated to live in Turkey (30,000), Serbia (20,000), Greece (10,000-30,000), Albania (5,000) and Bulgaria (less than 2,000).
Albanians. The Albanians of northern Macedonia are the second largest group, accounting for 24.30 percent of the population, or about 450,000 people. They speak Albanian and are mainly Muslim. They are concentrated in areas close to Kosovo and Albania, and are the majority in 15 of the 80 municipalities, among them Tetovo/Tetova, Gostivar, and Struga, as well as Čair/Çair and Saraj, in the Skopje metropolitan area. The current population is partly descended from Illyrians, who were present in the territory before the arrival of the first Slavs in the 6th century, but also from Albanians who were driven out of Serbia in the 19th century and out of Kosovo in the 1998-1999 war. After decades of discrimination, tensions and a civil war in 2001, the Albanians of North Macedonia have been granted broad rights. Since 2019, standard Albanian has enjoyed the status of "second official language. However, it is less present in the institutions than Macedonian, the "first official language. In everyday life, the Albanians of North Macedonia speak standard Albanian and the two main Albanian dialects: Gueghe, around Tetovo, as in Kosovo and northern Albania, and Toscan, around Struga, as in southern Albania. They are also fluent in Macedonian and some are fluent in Turkish. From a religious point of view, the vast majority belong to the Sunni stream of Islam, but there are also Sufi Muslims (Bektashis and Alevis). A minority are Christians. They are mostly Catholics, like Mother Teresa, a native of Skopje. Small Orthodox communities are present in the north as well as in the regions of Ohrid and Bitola in the southwest. In the Balkans, Albanians live mainly in Albania (80% of the 2.8 million inhabitants), Kosovo (90% of the 1.7 million inhabitants), Greece (over 600,000) and Serbia (70,000).
Minorities
Northern Macedonia is the Balkan country with the richest diversity in terms of population.
Turks. They represent 3.86% of the population, or about 70,000 people. They are Muslims and speak Turkish, Albanian, Macedonian and a local Turkish dialect that borrows from Greek and Slavic languages. They are mainly present in Skopje, Gostivar and they are the majority in two rural municipalities in the west, around the Mavrovo National Park. The present population is descended both from Anatolian settlers who arrived during the Ottoman era and from Turkicized Albanians. Most of them emigrated to Turkey when the Ottomans left in 1912 and in the course of displacements organized by socialist Yugoslavia in the 1950s-1960s. The Turkish language has official status in five municipalities. In the Balkans, outside Turkey, Turkish minorities are also present in Bulgaria (500,000), Greece (250,000) and Kosovo (about 30,000).
Roma. They officially represent 2.53% of the population, or about 46,000 people. But it is estimated that their real number is underestimated: they could be more than 200,000, or 12% of the population. The Roma of North Macedonia speak Balkan Romani and three Romani dialects as well as Macedonian and/or Albanian. About 70% are Sunni Muslims, but some are Sufis, Catholics, Orthodox or Protestants. The Roma come from the regions of Sindh (Pakistan) and Punjab (India). Their ancestors entered the Balkans in the Middle Ages. Today, there are two main local subgroups: the Gurbetis, who are established in many Balkan and Near Eastern countries, and the Arlijes, who are only present in Northern Macedonia. The latter are concentrated north of downtown Skopje, in Šuto Orizari/Shuto Orizari. This municipality is considered the largest Roma city in Europe with between 25,000 and 120,000 inhabitants. It is also the only municipality where Romani is the official language.
Mijaks. This subgroup of Macedonians is not considered an official minority. Their number is estimated at between 30,000 and 60,000. They originate from the western part of the country, around the Mavrovo National Park, especially from the village of Galičnik. The latter gives its name to their main dialect, which borrows from Macedonian, Bulgarian and Old Slavic. Orthodox Christians of the Macedonian rite, they also live in Debar, Bitola and Skopje. Once renowned for their woodcutting artists, who created some of the most beautiful iconostases in the country's churches in the 19th century, the Mijaks consider themselves Macedonians. But they retain their own traditions, including dances and wedding rituals that can be seen at the Galičnik festival on July 12.
Serbs. They number about 23,000, or 1.30% of the population. They are Southern Slavs, Orthodox Christians of Serbian rite, who speak Serbian and Macedonian. They are the descendants of populations that arrived during the expansion of the Serbian kingdoms, between the 9th and 13th centuries. This minority is in sharp decline: it has decreased by half since the 1970s. The Serbs of North Macedonia are concentrated mainly in the region bordering Serbia, in Skopje, in Kumanovo and in the small massif of Skopska Crna Gora, near Kosovo. They are also found along the Vardar valley, as far as the gates of Greece, in Gevgelija and around Lake Dojran.
Bosnians. They are estimated to number about 16,000 (0.87% of the population). They are Muslim southern Slavs, mostly Sunni. They speak Bosnian (similar to Serbian), Macedonian and sometimes Albanian. Their ancestors arrived here when Bosnia and Herzegovina came under Austro-Hungarian control in 1878. More than half of them live in the Skopje area. The others are mainly present in Veles and in the center of the country, in Dolneni.
Aromanians. Also called Vlachs or Vlachs, they number about 8,500 (0.47% of the population). They are a Latin-speaking people whose origins are not well known, but they are not directly related to the Romanians. They are Orthodox Christians of the Greek or Macedonian rite and speak Aromanian, Macedonian and frequently Greek. Once famous for their shepherds who made long transhumance trips across the Balkans, the Aromanians often became wealthy merchants in the 18th century with flourishing cities such as Moscopole, in Albania, Metsovo, in Greece, and Kruševo, in Northern Macedonia. They are still found here in Kruševo, but especially in Štip, Bitola and Skopje.
Torbèches. Also known as Pomaks or "Muslim Macedonians" they are estimated to be around 4,500 (0.2% of the population), but some researchers estimate them at 40,000. They are descendants of Bulgarians who were Islamized during the Ottoman era. They are Sunni and Sufi, speak Macedonian, but also Turkish and/or Albanian. They live mainly in the western part of the country, in the Mavrovo National Park, in Struga and constitute the majority of the population in the village of Labuništa (near Struga).
Ashkali and Balkan-Egyptians. They are estimated to be about 3,700 (0.2% of the population). They are Albanianized Roma. In the 1980s and 1990s, some of them invented new identities to differentiate themselves from the rest of the Roma and try to integrate better. Thus, the Ashkali believe they arrived from Persia in the fourth century, while the Balkan-Egyptians say their ancestors came from Egypt during the Ottoman era. They are mainly Muslims, sometimes Orthodox Christians or Catholics. They live mainly in Struga and in the western part of the country.
Bulgarians. Only 0.19% of the population declares itself Bulgarian to the authorities of North Macedonia, or about 3,500 people. However, this figure has increased significantly compared to previous censuses. They are Southern Slavs, Orthodox Christians of the Bulgarian rite, speaking Bulgarian and Macedonian. They live mainly in Strumica, in the southeast.
Croats. About 2,000 (0.12% of the population). They are Roman Catholic Christians, speak Croatian (similar to Serbian and Bosnian) and Macedonian. They live mainly in Skopje.
Montenegrins. About a thousand (0.06% of the population). They are Orthodox Christians of the Serbian rite, speak Montenegrin (similar to Serbian, Bosnian and Croatian) and Macedonian. They live mainly in Skopje.
Saracatsanes. No reliable or official statistics exist for this minority locally called the Karakačani. They are estimated to live in the southeast of North Macedonia, between 500 and 1,000. They are mainly present in Greece (about 80,000) and Bulgaria (2,500), and are generally considered Greeks and Greek Orthodox Christians, but their origins could be Bulgarian, Aromanian or Albanian. Ancient shepherds, the Saracatsanes have a dialect that borrows from ancient Greek, modern Greek and Aromanian. They also speak Greek, Bulgarian and Macedonian.
Slovenes. Approximately 400 in number, they are Roman Catholic and speak Slovene (a South Slavic language close to Serbo-Croatian, but more influenced by Latin, German and Italian) and Macedonian. They reside mainly in the Skopje region.
Yugoslavs. North Macedonia still recognizes a Yugoslav minority, even though Yugoslavia disappeared in 2006. Thus, about 300 inhabitants of the country still call themselves "Yugoslavs".
Greeks. Present in the south of the country until the Balkan wars (1912-1913), the former Greek populations have all disappeared or been assimilated. However, there are about 200-300 Greeks in North Macedonia today. These are the descendants of families of communist militants welcomed by Tito after the Greek civil war (1946-1949). They numbered up to 46,000 in the 1990s. They live mainly in Skopje and near Greece, in Bitola and Gevgelija.
Jews. They are estimated to live in Skopje, Bitola and Štip. Mostly Sephardic, they are mainly the descendants of Jews expelled from Spain and welcomed into the Ottoman Empire at the end of the 15th century. Before the Second World War, the community numbered more than 12,000 people. The vast majority were murdered in 1943 in the Holocaust. Just over 400 survived, but most later moved to Serbia or Israel. Like the Jews of Thessaloniki, those of North Macedonia traditionally speak Ladino (or Judeo-Spanish) derived from Old Castilian.
Gorans. There are now less than 150 of them in the villages of Jelovjane and Urvič in the Polog region along the Kosovo River. They belong to one of the smallest minorities in the Balkans: the Gorans or Goranis. They are southern Slavs, perhaps partly Celtic, who were Islamized late, in the 18th and 19th centuries. They are of Sunni faith, speak Nassinski (a mixture of Bulgarian and Serbian), but also Macedonian, Serbian and sometimes Albanian. The majority of the Gorans (about 10,000) live in the Gora region, at the southern tip of Kosovo.
And also ... During the second half of the 19th century, the territory of North Macedonia saw the arrival of populations from the Austro-Hungarian Empire. Today, the country has several small and often forgotten minorities: less than 400 Russians, about 200 Ukrainians and 150 Poles, less than 100 Germans as well as some Czech, Slovak, Italian and Austrian families.
The Macedonian language
Macedonian is the mother tongue of more than 2 million people worldwide and belongs to the South Slavic languages. This family includes Serbian, Croatian, Bosnian and Montenegrin - four languages that are almost identical - as well as Slovenian and Bulgarian. Like Serbian and Bulgarian, Macedonian is written in Cyrillic characters. The alphabet consists of thirty-one letters, five of which are unique to Macedonian. The language was codified in 1945 on the basis of the dialects of the whole territory. These were mostly close to Bulgarian and some, in the northern regions, close to Serbian. The Yugoslav authorities then made the political choice to orient this new language by giving it a more "Yugoslav" aspect than Bulgarian. The linguists therefore codified the language, basing it mainly on the dialects close to Serbian, to the detriment of the Bulgarian dialects which were nevertheless the most widely spoken. Today, Macedonian appears as a transitional language between Bulgarian and Serbian.
The Bulgarian temptation
Bulgaria considers Northern Macedonia to be historically Bulgarian territory. Since 2001, it has pursued a policy of "rebulgarization" by granting Bulgarian citizenship to the Macedonian population group on a massive scale. A tempting proposition, since it also allows access to the status of citizen of the European Union with the advantages that come with it. More than 100,000 Macedonians have opted for dual citizenship and another 70,000 are on the waiting list.
