Demographics
This is North Macedonia's number 1 problem. The population is in constant decline, due to a collapse in the birth rate and massive emigration. The only real measure taken by the state has been to allow some of its citizens living abroad to take part in the 2021 census. This was a clever move to disguise the real decline in the population: officially, it stands at 1.8 million... but demographers estimate that the country actually has 1.5 million inhabitants, a quarter less than in 1991, at the time of independence. However, despite the lack of government action in this area, there are signs of a slight improvement in North Macedonia: the birth rate has stopped falling since 2020 (although it has stagnated at 1.31 children/woman) and the unemployment rate has fallen below 15% since 2022. Another demographic challenge for the authorities is to encourage the diaspora (1 million people) to invest more in the country.
The place of ethnic minorities
All is not yet perfect, but North Macedonia is on the way to becoming a model in the Balkans for the integration of ethnic minorities. After violent divisions between population groups fuelled by conflicts between nations in the 20th century, a civil war in 2001 and a predominance of Macedonian nationalist theses since independence, a new policy of appeasement and openness to minorities has been in place since 2019. Albanian became the country's second official language, alongside Macedonian. Turkish and Romani have the status of local official languages. The political representation of the various components of the population has improved. Since 2021, Albanian political parties have no longer called for a boycott of elections and censuses. However, there are still major inequalities between ethnic groups. The Roma, for example, are more affected by unemployment and poverty. But Macedonians, who represent the largest population group (around 58.4%), now seem more willing to make room for other components of society. New challenges now lie ahead: the place of women, the management of migrants transiting through the country, the question of sexual minorities, and so on.
Joining the European Union
This is the major objective of the six Balkan countries still on the bangs of the EU: Northern Macedonia, Serbia, Albania, Kosovo, Montenegro and Moldavia. Skopje officially applied for membership in 2005. But its application has since been blocked by Greece and Bulgaria, as well as by deep-seated structural problems and internal crises. To obtain membership, the country has undertaken enormous efforts to restructure its economy and institutions. So, in 2019, following the Prespa agreement putting an end to the dispute with Greece, the vast majority of EU members finally agreed that Northern Macedonia should be accepted. But France, the Netherlands and Bulgaria refused, claiming that certain criteria had not yet been met: a certain opacity concerning financial flows, competition rules and the circulation of goods, as well as a virtual absence of measures to protect intellectual property rights and the environment. This is a major disappointment for local residents. More and more of them envisage a future without the EU. Yet every year, their country receives 1.3 billion euros under the "Instrument for Pre-Accession Assistance", which represents more than a third of state revenue.
Relations with Greece
They have long been tense due to the name chosen by the country, "Macedonia", at the time of its independence in 1991. But since the Prespa Agreement, signed in 2018 and effective in 2019, a compromise has been reached: the country finally has an official name recognized throughout the world, "Republic of North Macedonia" in English. Relations with Athens have eased. In line with this agreement, Skopje has undertaken to rename all recent sites whose names evoked the ancient Greek kingdom of Macedonia. In 2020, for example, Alexander the Great Airport became Skopje International Airport. However, most Greeks still prefer to call the country "Skopia", and they react vehemently whenever a sports delegation or minister from Skopje forgets to put "du Nord" on a jersey or an official letter. Without having become an ally of North Macedonia, Greece is no longer hostile to the idea of its small neighbor joining the European Union.
Relations with Serbia
They're getting better. In 2008, the authorities in Belgrade took a very hard line when Skopje recognized the independence of Kosovo - considered a Serbian province by the UN and half the countries in the world - resulting in the immediate expulsion of the North Macedonian ambassador to Belgrade. Ties between the two states were also marred by a long-standing dispute over the status of the Macedonian Orthodox Church. In theory, it remained under the jurisdiction of the Serbian Orthodox Church, a position vigorously contested by successive governments in Skopje. But in 2022, under pressure from the Patriarch of Constantinople, the Serbian Church finally recognized the autocephaly (independence) of the Macedonian Church. This formalized the appeasement between North Macedonia and Serbia. By 2021, the two countries were jointly setting up the Open Balkan common economic zone with Albania. Described as a "mini-Schengen", this initiative aims to facilitate trade, strengthen cooperation and improve bilateral relations between the three nations. The aim is also to make Skopje's, Belgrade's and Tirana's applications for membership of the European Union more attractive.
Relations with Albania and Kosovo
They are cordial but complex. Kosovo greatly appreciated North Macedonia's recognition of its independence in 2008, even if it meant provoking the ire of Belgrade. But Skopje remains wary of Albanian nationalism, since it was the Kosovo war (1998-1999) that provoked the Albanian uprising and civil conflict in North Macedonia between January and December 2001. In Skopje, people are rightly offended that the Pristina government considers the members of a commando of Kosovo Albanian nationalists who died sowing terror in Kumanovo in 2015 to be "national heroes". Relations with Albania are more serene. Tirana has always been careful not to support the claims of Albanian nationalists in Northern Macedonia. As proof of this good understanding, since 2021 the two countries have been part of the Open Balkan common economic zone created with Serbia. However, recent declarations by Albanian Prime Minister Edi Rama to merge his country with Kosovo have raised the spectre of a "Greater Albania" whose contours would extend over a large part of Northern Macedonia.
Relations with Bulgaria
Long overshadowed by quarrels with Greece, relations between North Macedonia and Bulgaria remain stormy. In essence, Sofia readily acknowledges the existence of North Macedonia, but categorically denies the existence of a "Macedonian people". For the Bulgarian authorities, the majority of North Macedonia's Slavic inhabitants are "Bulgarians". Historically, culturally and genetically, this is not really wrong. But this kind of assertion is frowned upon in North Macedonia. Especially as Sofia encourages the inhabitants of North Macedonia to take Bulgarian nationality, which is very attractive since Bulgaria is a member of the EU. For its part, Skopje is pursuing a revisionist policy towards its Bulgarian past. This is a continuation of the measures taken by the Yugoslav authorities during the 20th century, who did everything in their power to attenuate Bulgarian influence here, including creating the Macedonian language on the basis of Serbian in 1945. Since the 2000s, negotiations have been underway between Sofia and Skopje. The Bulgarian authorities are demanding that Bulgarian national heroes should no longer be referred to as "Macedonian". In exchange, Bulgaria will support North Macedonia's accession to the EU. But with no compromise in sight, Sofia continues to block Skopje's dossier in Brussels.
Foreign interference
Left out of the European Union since 2005 and with no allies among its neighbors, North Macedonia has naturally turned to other major powers. Turkey, Russia and China have all set up operations here, with varying degrees of opacity. With promises of aid and major investments, these three nations have not really kept their promises. The European Union remains by far the most important financial supporter and economic partner of North Macedonia. However, Russia and Turkey continue to influence certain aspects of the country's development through their underhand financing of local political parties. China, for its part, intends to become a major player in the region. It is backing a huge project to make the Vardar navigable and link it to the Danube, enabling Chinese containers to cross Europe by river from Thessaloniki, in Greek Macedonia, whose port has been controlled since 2020 by a Franco-Chinese consortium. For the time being, this multi-billion euro project has little chance of coming to fruition. But it has local decision-makers dreaming of a new lease of life for Northern Macedonia.
