Recovery from the pandemic
Trinidad & Tobago was hard hit economically by the Covid-19 pandemic through the energy sector (40% of GDP and 80% of exports), where demand fell and production was partially suspended in 2020, the tourism sector (8% of GDP in 2019), and by the strict containment measures adopted to combat the spread of the virus. The recovery of the energy sector, both in volume and price terms, has enabled activity to stabilize in 2021. This recovery, which continued into 2022, combined with the easing of sanitary restrictions, translates into comfortable growth of around 5% in 2022. Once again, the petrochemical industry is the driving force behind this recovery, while tourism is recovering more slowly and remains dependent on possible future travel restrictions.
Political stability
Prime Minister Keith Rowley, leader of the centrist People's National Movement (PNM), has headed the government since 2015 and was re-elected in the 2020 elections to lead the country until 2025, with a narrow absolute majority in parliament (22 seats out of 41 against 19 for the United National Congress, the opposition party led by Kamla Persad-Bissessar, a former prime minister). In 2022, the government continued to face high levels of corruption, rising crime and extensive drug trafficking, reflecting the country's institutional weaknesses. Trinidad & Tobago has the sixth highest crime rate in the world, although crime is concentrated in specific areas of the country, particularly in the suburbs of Port of Spain. People are angry about this climate of insecurity, feeling that the police are not doing enough to protect citizens. There are also tensions between Afro-Trinidadians, who vote for the PNM, and Indo-Trinidadians, who vote for the UNC, but these rarely degenerate into violence.
The number of Venezuelan migrants trying to escape the economic and humanitarian crisis in their country is increasing every year, rising from 24,000 in 2020 to 30,000 in 2021, despite the country's confinement. In response, the Prime Minister, a staunch ally of Nicolas Maduro, does not hesitate to expel migrants, who often arrive in motorboats, and opposes any further opening of borders with Venezuela.
Insecurity
Crime and violence are a persistent challenge for Trinidad & Tobago. High rates of violent crime and worrying levels of other forms of social violence (assault, theft, gender-based violence) are mainly centralized in "sensitive" areas or targeted at members of vulnerable groups. However, there has been an increase in cases of criminal activity against the general public, so security authorities are urging residents and visitors to be vigilant and exercise caution in everyday activities.
This theme of insecurity is central to policy, and the current government is well aware of this. Various measures have been taken, such as increasing police salaries and improving working conditions, but corruption is often stronger and sometimes spoils the best efforts. Fortunately, Tobago remains very peaceful, with very few cases of violence reported in this little paradise.
The strength of tourism for Tobago
Unlike its big sister, Tobago has no underground natural riches, but is fortunately rich in terrestrial and underwater natural wonders that are just waiting to be better known by travelers the world over. The THA (Tobago House of Assembly), the equivalent of our regional parliaments, has understood this and has undertaken a major overhaul of its tourism promotion tools, while doing its utmost to help local operators recover from the economic crisis induced by the Covid-19 pandemic. Many hotels have changed ownership during the crisis, and the offer is being renewed at breakneck speed. At the end of 2022, two major tourism promotion projects were underway, at the initiative of the THA: a $500 million Marriott project to open a major hotel on the west coast in 2025, and a $350 million project for a 126-bungalow hotel on the east coast, next to the famous Argyle Falls waterfall. It's a safe bet that this little undiscovered paradise will become less so in the years to come.
The challenges of tomorrow
The challenges facing the country are not the same on the two islands. Industrial Trinidad will continue its development in the petrochemical sector, and to do so will have to face up to major infrastructure renovations requiring large-scale investment, often dependent on the price of oil. Tobago, the natural island, will have to successfully open up to international tourism, aided by major hotel chains who saw the opportunity to invest in one of the last wild islands in the Caribbean arc. These large-scale developments will have to respect the country's unique biodiversity, but their duality is a strength, and let's hope that politicians will make the most of it to turn Trinidad & Tobago into the Caribbean destination it is being held up as an example.
Another major undertaking for the country is the need for substantial investment in security, if the Trinidad & Tobago government is to remain in power in the long term. Indeed, this is one of the main concerns of the local population, who will not hesitate to punish the party in power if the situation, which has slowly deteriorated over the last 10 years, does not rapidly improve.
